000 AXPZ20 KNHC 291509 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1446 UTC Mon Jul 29 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Erick is centered near 12.3N 135.7W at 29/1500 UTC moving W at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 150 nm in the northeast semicircle of the center, and from 07N to 10N between 135W and 140W. Erick continues to strengthen, and is expected to become a hurricane later today, and potentially a major hurricane on Tuesday. A weakening trend is forecast to begin by late Wednesday. Please see latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. Newly named Tropical Storm Flossie is centered near 12.5N 114.6W at 29/1500 UTC moving W at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm in the southwest semicircle of the storm, and within 90 nm in the northeast semicircle of the storm. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 98W N of 05N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 15N between 95W and 105W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 123W from 06N to 18N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 10N to 15.5N between 120W and 125W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from a 1008 mb low pressure over northern Colombia to 07.5N80W to 08N90W to 09N104W, then resumes west of T.S. Flossie from 10N117W to 12N124W. The ITCZ extends west of T.S. Erick from 09N136W to beyond 09N140W. Clusters of moderate to isolated strong convection are noted from 03N to 08N E of 80W, including the Gulf of Panama. Similar convection is also seen near 06.5N83W. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 12N between 100W and 102W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge will dominate the waters west of Baja California through Thu, producing gentle to moderate winds. Fresh to strong gap winds will prevail across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early this morning, then will pulse to fresh to strong during the overnight and early morning hours hours in a very narrow plume Mon night through Thu night. A surface trough will meander between Baja California and the Gulf of California. This will result in mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds through Tue, and then light and variable winds the remainder of the forecast period. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong gap winds will prevail across and extend well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through tonight, with seas in the 6 to 8 ft range. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds will prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected south of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please, see Special Features section for more information on T.S. Erick, and T.S. Flossie. Elsewhere, a ridge prevails across the forecast waters N of 20N W of Baja California. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a couple of tropical cyclones moving westward S of the ridge will result in moderate to fresh winds mainly N of 15N W of 120W. $$ Christensen