000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290249 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Jul 29 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Erick centered near 11.7N 133.1W at 0300 UTC moving W at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is now 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted within 90 nm NE and 120 nm SW semicircles. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 08.5N to 15N between 129W and 136W. Satellite imagery indicates that Erick has strengthened during the past 6 hours with clouds tops now to -80 deg C. This intensification is expected to continue over the next few days, with Erick expected to reach hurricane strength Monday morning. Please see latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. Tropical Depression Seven-E centered near 12.2N 111.0W at 0300 UTC moving WNW at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed remains 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection was noted within 45 nm SE and 240 nm NW semicircles. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection was noted elsewhere from 08N to 15N between 106W and 116W. Seven-E is forecast to reach tropical storm strength tonight, and continue to gradually intensify as it moves on a WNW track. The current forecast has Seven-E reaching hurricane intensity Tue afternoon or evening. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 94W N of 04N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 05N to 14N between 93W and 100W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 121W from 05N to 19N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 15.5N between 119W and 124W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W TO 06N79W TO 11N104W, then resumes from 10N113W TO 13N125W. The ITCZ extends from W 09N136W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted N of 04N E of 79W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad ridge will extend weakly SE into the region and dominate the waters west of Baja California through Thu, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing. Fresh to strong gap winds will prevail across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Mon morning. On Mon the strong northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish, then pulse to fresh to strong during the overnight hours in a very narrow plume Mon night through Thu night. Fresh to strong E to SE winds occurring well northeast of Tropical Depression Seven-E will brush the far outer offshore waters from offshore of western Guerrero to Manzanillo tonight, where seas will range 6-8 ft in ESE swell. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong gap winds will prevail across and extend well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through Mon, with seas in the 6 to 8 ft range. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds will prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected south of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please, see Special Features section for more information on T.S. Erick, and Tropical Depression Seven-E. Elsewhere, high pressure prevails across the forecast waters N of 20N, centered on strong 1033 mb high near 40N154W. Outside of Tropical Storm Erick, and Tropical Depression Seven-E, mainly moderate winds prevail north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough. The combination of a strengthening ridge, Erick, and Seven-E will help for an increase in winds across the waters N of 10N early this week. Outside of the tropical systems, moderate to fresh winds will prevail. $$ Stripling