000 AXPZ20 KNHC 282154 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Jul 28 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Erick centered near 12.0N 131.3W at 2100 UTC moving W at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is now 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted within 45 nm E and 90 nm W semicircles. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 07.5N to 14N between 128W and 134W. Erick is expected to intensify over the next few days, reaching hurricane strength Monday morning. Please see latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. Tropical Depression Seven-E centered near 11.5N 109.1W at 2100 UTC moving W at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection was noted within 60 nm SE and 120 nm NW semicircles. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection was noted elsewhere from 10.5N to 16N between 106W and 113W, and from 07N to 11.5N between 103W and 108W. Seven-E is forecast to reach tropical storm strength tonight, and continue to gradually intensify as it moves on a WNW track. The current forecast has Seven-E reaching hurricane intensity late Tue night. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 93W N of 04N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 05N to 14N between 90W and 99W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 118W from 05N to 19N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 116W and 121W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W TO 06N79W TO 08.5N104W, then resumes from 10N111W TO 11.5N124W. The ITCZ currently extends W of 140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 80W and 85W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad ridge will extend weakly SE into the region and dominate the waters west of Baja California through Thu, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing. Fresh to strong gap winds will prevail across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Mon morning. Strong northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish Mon then pulse to fresh to strong during the overnight hours in a very narrow plume Mon night through Thu night. Fresh to strong E to SE winds occurring well northeast of Tropical Depression Seven-E will brush the far outer offshore waters from Acapulco to Manzanillo this evening through tonight, where seas will range 6-8 ft in ESE swell. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong gap winds will prevail across and extend well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through Mon, with seas in the 6 to 9 ft range. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds will prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected south of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please, see Special Features section for more information on T.S. Erick, and newly developed Tropical Depression Seven-E. Elsewhere, high pressure prevails across the forecast waters N of 20N, centered on strong 1033 mb high near 40N152W. Outside of Tropical Storm Erick, and Tropical Depression Seven-E, mainly moderate winds prevail north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough. The combination of a strengthening ridge, Erick, and Seven-E will help for an increase in winds across the waters N of 10N early this week. Outside of the tropical systems, moderate to fresh winds will prevail. $$ Stripling