000 AXPZ20 KNHC 281453 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1450 UTC Sun Jul 28 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1450 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Erick centered near 12.3N 129.8W at 28/1500 UTC moving W at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted within 60 nm NE and 90 nm SW semicircles. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 06N to 15N between 125W and 134W. Erick is expected to intensify over the next few days, reaching hurricane strength on Monday. Please see latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. Newly developed Tropical Depression Seven-E centered near 11.2N 107.5W at 28/1500 UTC moving WNW at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection was noted within 120 nm N and 30 nm SW semicircles. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted elsewhere from 07N to 16N between 103W and 111W. Seven-E is forecast to reach tropical storm strength tonight, and continue to intensify as it moves on a WNW track. The current forecast has Seven-E reaching hurricane intensity Tue night. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 91W N of 04N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 07N to 10N between 87W and 92W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 117W from 05N to 18N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 115W and 121W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 06.5N81W to 11N103W. It resumes from 12N112W to 13N120W. The ITCZ extends from 10N132W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted N of 06N E of 81W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge will dominate the waters west of Baja California through Thu, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing. Fresh to strong gap winds will prevail across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Mon morning. Winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will then pulse to fresh to strong during the overnight hours Mon night through Thu night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong gap winds will prevail across and extend well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through Mon, with seas in the 6 to 9 ft range. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds will prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected south of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please, see Special Features section for more information on T.S. Erick, and newly developed Tropical Depression Seven-E. Elsewhere, high pressure prevails across the forecast waters N of 20N. Outside of Tropical Storm Erick, and Tropical Depression Seven-E, mainly moderate winds prevail north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough. The combination of a strengthening ridge, Erick, and Seven-E will help for an increase in winds across the waters N of 10N early this week. Outside of the tropical systems, moderate to fresh winds will prevail. $$ AL