000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280918 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 829 UTC Sun Jul 28 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Erick is centered near 12.1N 128.1W at 28/0900 UTC moving W or 280 degrees at 14 kt, and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days with a slight decrease in forward speed. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Erick is expected to strengthen over the next few days, becoming a hurricane on Monday. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted within 60 nm NE and 90 nm SW semicircles, and from 10N to 11.5N between 128W and 130W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen elsewhere from 07N to 14N between 125W and 132W. Please see latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. An area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is located near 10.5N105W or several hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10.5N to 13N between 104W and 108W. This system continues to become better organized, and conditions appear favorable for additional development. A tropical depression is expected to form within the next day or two while the system moves generally westward at 15 to 20 kt. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 91W N of 04N, moving W at 15 kt. No significant convection. The axis of a tropical wave is near 116W from 05N to 18N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 13N between 115W and 117W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N93W to a low pressure located near 10.5N105W to 12N120W. The ITCZ extends from 10N132W TO 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 08N between 78W and 80W...from 07N to 11N between 98W and 102W...and from 11N to 13N between 115W and 117W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge will dominate the waters west of Baja California through Wed, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing. Fresh southerly winds will develop across the northern Gulf of California Sun morning and again Mon morning. Fresh to strong gap winds will prevail across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Mon morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong gap winds will prevail across and extend well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through Mon, with seas remaining in the 6 to 8 ft range. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are expected elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please, see Special Features section for more information on T.S. Erick, and a low pressure system with a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. Elsewhere, a ridge prevails across the forecast waters N of 18N W of 115W. Outside of Tropical Storm Erick, the pressure gradient across the area is fairly weak. This is resulting in mainly moderate winds north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough. There is the potential for another tropical cyclone to develop over the forecast waters within the next day or two, and move west northwestward through this tradewind region. The combination of a strengthening ridge, Erick, and possible another tropical cyclone developing early this week will help for an increase in winds across the waters N of 10N. Outside of the tropical systems, moderate to fresh winds will prevail. $$ GR