735 AXPZ20 KNHC 272139 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Jul 27 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Erick is centered near 11.3N 123.8W at 2100 UTC moving W at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Recent satellite derived surface winds suggest winds have increased to minimal tropical storm force, and extend only 20 nm across the eastern quadrant. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection was noted within 60 nm NE and 45 nm SW semicircles. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was elsewhere from 08N to 13.5N between 119W and 126W. The storm is forecast to gradually intensify the next several days as it moves on a general west to west northwest track. Please see latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 86-87W N of 03N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04.5N to 11N between 84W and 94W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 102W from 06N to 14N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 07N to 14.5N between 97W and 110W. This wave has a medium potential for possible tropical cyclone development during the next 48 hours and a high probability for tropical cyclone formation during the next 5 days. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. The axis of a tropical wave is near 112-113W from 04N to 17N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 17N between 110W and 117W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N74.5W TO 06N91W TO 13.5N112W TO 12.5N123W. The ITCZ extends from 10N127W TO 08.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 03.5N TO 07N BETWEEN 134W AND 137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge will dominate the waters west of Baja California through Wed, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing. Fresh to strong gap winds will prevail across the Gulf of Tehuantepec this weekend before diminishing Mon. Winds will then pulse to fresh to strong during the overnight hours. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong gap winds will prevail across and extend well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through Tue, with seas remaining in the 7 to 9 ft range. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds will prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see above for more on newly upgraded Tropical Storm Erick. Elsewhere, a ridge prevails across the forecast waters N of 25N. Outside of Tropical Storm Erick, the pressure gradient across the area is fairly weak. This is resulting in mainly moderate winds north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough. There is the potential for another tropical cyclone to develop over the forecast waters early next week, and move west northwestward through this tradewind region. Please see the tropical wave section above for more information. The combination of a strengthening ridge, Erick, and possible another tropical cyclone developing early next week will help for an increase in winds across the waters N of 10N. Outside of the tropical systems, moderate to fresh winds will prevail. Moderate to fresh winds prevail S of the ITCZ/monsoon trough. This is helping to maintain seas in the 6-8 ft range across this area, as cross equatorial SE and S swell are moving through the area. These seas will slowly subside over the weekend. $$ Stripling