000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270910 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Jul 27 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A developing low pressure area along a tropical wave is located near 11N121W, moving W at 10 kt. Estimated pressure is 1009 mb. Scatterometer data and satellite imagery suggest a tropical low with winds to 30 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is coiling in bands around the surface low, within 90 nm of the center. Environmental conditions are favorable for development, and a tropical cyclone could form from this wave within the next 12 to 24 hours. This system has a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. See the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 90W N of 03N, moving W at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is noted near the wave axis. The axis of a tropical wave is near 99W from 03N to 15N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 97W and 103W. This wave has potential for possible tropical cyclone development over the next several days. There is a high probability for tropical cyclone formation beyond 48 hours as the wave moves into a region of favorable environmental conditions. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. The axis of a tropical wave is near 114W from 04N to 17N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 107W and 112W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 08N98W to 14N115W to low pres near 11N121W to 10N124W. The ITCZ continues from 10N124W to 08N133W to 08N140W. No significant convection is occurring aside from described above with the tropical waves. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge will dominate the forecast waters west of Baja California through Tue, while the remnants of Dalila move off toward the west and weaken. Expect gentle to moderate NW winds to prevail through the weekend, becoming mostly moderate Mon and Tue. Light and variable winds will continue across the Gulf of California through tonight, then become gentle to moderate from the south Sat and Sun, and dominated by the effects of daytime heating. An upper level low pressure system is along 110W offshore of Cabo Corrientes, and generated active weather across the region there last night and this morning. Weather has diminished this afternoon as this low moves west and away from the coast. However, expect evening and night time thunderstorms again from Jalisco to southern Sinaloa and westward across Las Tres Marias and the area waters, shifting westward and weakening overnight. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds will prevail across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the weekend as active tropical waves move westward through the region. Peak winds overnight through early morning may briefly reach to near 30 kt, with seas to 9 ft. Winds will diminish by Sun afternoon, then pulse to fresh to strong Mon night and Tue night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong gap winds will prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo and extend well downstream to beyond 90W through Tue, with seas generally in the 7-9 ft range. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds will prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough. Strong cross equatorial swell that moved into the area today will maintain seas in the 6-8 ft range south of 10N through Sat before subsiding. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnant low of Dalila is evident on satellite imagery as a swirl of westward moving low level clouds near 22.5N124.5W. Afternoon scatterometer data showed maximum winds to 20 kt across the NW quadrant, where seas were 6-7 ft. The remnant low of Dalila is forecast to move west and weaken into a trough tonight. A ridge dominates the forecast waters N of 18N. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure in the monsoon trough and in the vicinity of the ITCZ is fairly weak. This is resulting in mainly gentle to moderate winds north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough. The ridge will strengthen slightly across the northern forecast waters this weekend as the remnant low of Dalila dissipates, bringing a moderate increase in winds N of the ITCZ/monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh winds prevail S of the ITCZ/monsoon trough. This is helping to maintain seas in the 6-8 ft range across this area, as cross equatorial SE and S swell are moving through the area. These seas will subside very slowly over the weekend as the swell fades. $$ Stripling