000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270229 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Jul 27 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 120W from 02N to 17N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Afternoon scatterometer data and recent satellite imagery suggests that a surface low pressure center has formed near 10.5N120.5W, estimated at 1009 mb. A cluster of scattered moderate to strong convection continues near the surface low, within 90 nm across all quadrants except the NW. This wave is beginning to show signs of becoming better organized. Environmental conditions are favorable for additional organization, and a tropical cyclone could form with this wave during the next several days. This system has a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 88W N of 03N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 04.5N to 10N between 84W and 90W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 97W N of 03N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 91W and 100W. This wave will be one to watch with interest over the next several days for possible tropical cyclone development. Although there is a low chance for development over the next couple of days, however there is a high probability for tropical cyclone formation afterwards, as the wave moves into a region of favorable environmental conditions. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. The axis of a tropical wave is near 113W from 04N to 17N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 08N to 16N between 102W and 113W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W TO 07.5N81W TO 09N100W TO 14.5N113W to low pres near 10.5N120.5W. The ITCZ begins near 08N125W TO 05.5N132W TO 07.5N140W. No significant convection is occurring outside of that described above with the tropical waves. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge will dominate the forecast waters west of Baja California through Tue, while the remnants of Dalila move off toward the west and weaken. Expect gentle to moderate NW winds to prevail through the weekend, becoming mostly moderate Mon and Tue. Light and variable winds will continue across the Gulf of California through tonight, then become gentle to moderate from the south Sat and Sun, and dominated by the effects of daytime heating. An upper level low pressure system is along 110W offshore of Cabo Corrientes, and generated active weather across the region there last night and this morning. Weather has diminished this afternoon as this low moves west and away from the coast. However, expect evening and night time thunderstorms again from Jalisco to southern Sinaloa and westward across Las Tres Marias and the area waters, shifting westward and weakening overnight. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds will prevail across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the weekend as active tropical waves move westward through the region. Peak winds overnight through early morning may briefly reach to near 30 kt, with seas to 9 ft. Winds will diminish by Sun afternoon, then pulse to fresh to strong Mon night and Tue night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong gap winds will prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo and extend well downstream to beyond 90W through Tue, with seas generally in the 7-9 ft range. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds will prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough. Strong cross equatorial swell that moved into the area today will maintain seas in the 6-8 ft range south of 10N through Sat before subsiding. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnant low of Dalila is evident on satellite imagery as a swirl of westward moving low level clouds near 22.5N124.5W. Afternoon scatterometer data showed maximum winds to 20 kt across the NW quadrant, where seas were 6-7 ft. The remnant low of Dalila is forecast to move west and weaken into a trough tonight. A ridge dominates the forecast waters N of 18N. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure in the monsoon trough and in the vicinity of the ITCZ is fairly weak. This is resulting in mainly gentle to moderate winds north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough. The ridge will strengthen slightly across the northern forecast waters this weekend as the remnant low of Dalila dissipates, bringing a moderate increase in winds N of the ITCZ/monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh winds prevail S of the ITCZ/monsoon trough. This is helping to maintain seas in the 6-8 ft range across this area, as cross equatorial SE and S swell are moving through the area. These seas will subside very slowly over the weekend as the swell fades. $$ Stripling