000 AXPZ20 KNHC 262219 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Jul 26 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 119W from 02N to 17N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Recent scatterometer data suggests that a surface low pressure center is forming near 10.5N119W, estimated at 1011 mb. A cluster of scattered moderate to strong convection is noted near the surface low, within 75 nm across the north and 90 nm across the south semicircles. This wave is beginning to show signs of becoming better organized. Environmental conditions are favorable for additional organization, and a tropical cyclone could form with this wave during the next several days. This system has a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 86W N of 03N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 04.5N to 10N between 81W and 90W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 95W N of 03N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to 15N between 90W and 100W. This wave will be one to watch with interest over the next several days for possible tropical cyclone development. Although there is a low chance for development over the next couple of days, there is a medium probability for tropical cyclone formation afterwards, as the wave moves into a region of favorable environmental conditions. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. The axis of a tropical wave is near 112W from 04N to 17N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 08N to 15N between 106W and 116W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W TO 06.5N86W TO 12.5N112W TO 06.5N124W, where it transitions to ITCZ, and continues on to 06N130W TO 08N140W. No significant convection is occurring outside of that described above with the tropical waves. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge will dominate the forecast waters west of Baja California through Tue, while the remnants of Dalila move off to the west and weaken. Expect gentle to moderate NW winds to prevail through the weekend, becoming mostly moderate Mon and Tue. Light and variable winds will continue across the Gulf of California through tonight, then become gentle to moderate from the south Sat and Sun, and dominated by the effects of daytime heating. An upper level low pressure system is offshore of Cabo Corrientes and has been generating active weather across the region there for the past 24 hours. Weather has diminished this afternoon as this low moves west and away from the coast. However, expect late afternoon thunderstorms to again develop from Jalisco to southern Sinaloa and westward across Las Tres Marias and the area waters, and shift westward with the low tonight. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds will prevail across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the weekend as active tropical waves move westward through the region. Peak winds overnight through early morning may briefly reach to near 30 kt, with seas to 9 ft. Winds will diminish by Sun afternoon, then pulse to fresh to strong Mon night and Tue night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong gap winds will prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo and extend well downstream to beyond 90W through Tue, with seas generally in the 7-9 ft range. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds will prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough. Strong cross equatorial swell moving into the area today will maintain seas in the 6-8 ft range south of 10N through Sat before subsiding. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnant low of Dalila is evident on satellite imagery as a swirl of westward moving low level clouds near 22.5N123.5W. Afternoon scatterometer data showed maximum winds to 20 kt across the NW quadrant, where seas were 6-7 ft. The remnant low of Dalila is forecast to move west and weaken into a trough tonight. A ridge dominates the forecast waters N of 25N. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure in the monsoon trough and in the vicinity of the ITCZ is fairly weak. This is resulting in mainly gentle to moderate winds north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough. The ridge will strengthen slightly across the northern forecast waters this weekend as the remnant low of Dalila dissipates, bringing a moderate increase in winds N of the ITCZ/monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh winds prevail S of the ITCZ/monsoon trough. This is helping to maintain seas in the 6-8 ft range across this area, as cross equatorial SE and S swell are moving through the area. $$ Stripling