000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260223 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 127 UTC Fri Jul 26 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 82W N of 04N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted over the SW Caribbean and western Panama in association with this wave. A tropical wave is along 99W N of 04N, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated moderate convection is present on either side of the wave axis. A tropical wave extends from 17N108W to 06N109W, moving W around 15 kt. The wave is generating some convective activity, mainly from 07N to 14N between 100W and 110W. Another tropical wave has an axis extending from 16N116W to 04N117W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. This wave is producing a broad area of cloudiness and disorganized showers from 05N to 13N between 110W and 123W. Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a 20 percent chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 08N85W to 09N100W to 13N110W to 07N123W to 12N133W. The ITCZ continues from 12N133W to 11N140W. Most of the convective activity is associated with the aforementioned tropical waves from 05N to 14N E of 123W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge will dominate the offshore forecast waters west of Baja California through the upcoming weekend. A surface trough near the Baja peninsula will generally support moderate SE to S winds over the Gulf of California during the next several days. Northerly winds will increase to fresh to strong over the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning tonight. This gap wind event will likely persist through early next week. Winds will be strongest at night, aided by nocturnal drainage flow. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough combined with long period S swell will maintain seas to 7 ft off the coasts of Panama and Colombia, and also between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Fri night, then seas will slightly subside to 4 to 6 ft the remainder of the forecast period. Strong gap winds will affect the Gulf of Papagayo through Mon, with seas building to 8 or 9 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnant low of Dalila, as a well defined swirl of low clouds, is still noted on satellite imagery near 22N122W. Dalila is forecast to open up into a trough by late Fri or Fri night. A ridge dominates much of the forecast waters N of 20N and W of 112W. Light to moderate winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft are noted under the influence of the ridge. This system will strengthen across the northern forecast waters over the upcoming weekend as the remnant low of Dalila dissipates. Cross equatorial SE to S swell with seas to 8 ft will affect the forecast waters S of the Equator and E of 120W through Sat. Wind waves generated by a tropical wave currently located along 117W will generate an area of 8 ft seas from 02N to 08N between 113W AND 118W. This area of seas will expand and move W in tandem with the tropical wave through at least Sat. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico early next week. Some gradual development of the low is expected thereafter, and a tropical depression could form while the system moves generally westward at around 15 kt. $$ GR