000 AXPZ20 KNHC 252133 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2024 UTC Thu Jul 25 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 81W N of 04N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted over the SW Caribbean in association with this wave, that is also helping to induce some convective activity over the Gulf of Panama and near the Azuero Peninsula. A tropical wave is along 93W N of 04N, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present on either side of the wave axis, covering the waters from 05N to 14N between 89W and 97W. A tropical wave extends from 17N107W to 06N108W, moving W around 20 kt. The wave is generating some convective activity, particularly from 07N to 14N between 100W and 110W. Another tropical wave has an axis extending from 16N115W to 05N116W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. This wave is producing a broad area of cloudiness and disorganized showers from 05N to 14N between 110W and 122W. Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a 20 percent chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 08N93W to 08N100W to 12N108W to 05N122W to 12N134W. The ITCZ continues from 12N134W to 11N140W. Most of the convective activity is associated with the aforementioned tropical waves from 05N to 14N E of 122W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge will dominate the offshore forecast waters west of Baja California through the upcoming weekend. A surface trough near the Baja peninsula will generally support moderate SE to S winds over the Gulf of California during the next several days. Northerly winds will increase to fresh to strong over the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri night. This gap wind event will likely persist through early next week. Winds will be strongest at night, aided by nocturnal drainage flow. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough combined with long period S swell will maintain seas to 7 ft off the coasts of Panama and Colombia, and also between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Fri night. Strong gap winds will affect the Gulf of Papagayo through Sat morning, and again Sun through Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The last advisory on Tropical Depression Dalila was issued by the National Hurricane Center at 25/1500Z. A well defined swirl of low clouds is still noted on visible satellite imagery near 22N121W. Dalila is forecast to open up into a trough by late Fri or Fri night. A ridge dominates most of the forecast waters N of 18N and W of 120W. Moderate NE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted south of the ridge and N of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. The ridge will strengthen across the northern forecast waters during the remainder of this week as the remnant low of Dalila dissipates. Cross equatorial SE to S swell will affect the forecast waters S of the Equator and E of 120W through Sun. Seas of 8 to 9 ft will subside below 8 ft Sun night as the swell decay. Wind waves generated by a tropical wave currently located along 116W will generate an area of 8 ft seas from 02N to 08N between 113W AND 118W. This area of seas will expand and move W in tandem with the tropical wave through at least Sat. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico early next week. Some gradual development of the low is expected thereafter, and a tropical depression could form while the system moves generally westward at around 15 kt. $$ GR