000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250244 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 103 UTC Thu Jul 25 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Depression Dalila is centered near 21.4N 119.8W at 25/0300 UTC moving NNW or 330 degrees at 7 kt. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast to occur on Thursday, and that general motion should continue until the system dissipates in a few days. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Dalila is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low on Thursday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 85W N of 03N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. This wave is helping to induce some convective activity over Central America. Scattered moderate convection is near the wave axis over the eastern Pacific waters. A tropical wave is along 103W from 04N to 16N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the wave axis. A tropical wave extends from 17N112W to 03N113W. This tropical wave is producing cloudiness and showers over a broad area. Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive for the development of this system during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a 20 percent chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 13N103W to 13N113W to 11N130W. Aside from convection associated with tropical waves and Dalila, a cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is noted N of 07N between 80W and 83W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge will dominate the offshore forecast waters west of Baja California through the upcoming weekend. A surface trough over the Baja California Peninsula will support light to gentle southerly winds across the Gulf of California during the next several days. Northerly winds will increase to fresh to strong speeds over the Tehuantepec region by Thu night. This gap wind event is expected to persist through early next week. Winds will generally be strongest during the overnight and early morning hours with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough combined with long period southerly swell will generally maintain seas to 7 ft off the coasts of Panama and Colombia, and between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Fri night. Seas of 8 to 9 ft are expected just S of the equator through Fri night as long period SE to S swell moves into the region. Fresh to strong gap winds will affect the Gulf of Papagayo Thu night through Sat morning, and again Sun night into Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates most of the forecast waters N of 18N and W of 120W. Mainly moderate NE to E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted under the influence of the ridge. As Dalila dissipates, the ridge is forecast to build back across most of the northern forecast waters, including the offshore waters W of Baja California over the upcoming weekend. An area of 8 ft seas in mixed swell is seen from 10N to 14N W of 132W, and S of 05N between 130W and 134W. Seas are forecast to subside in this area to less than 8 ft on Thu. Cross equatorial southerly swell will affect the waters S of Equator and E of 120W beginning tonight, building seas in the 8 to 9 ft range. $$ GR