000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230242 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0230 UTC Tue Jul 23 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Depression Five-E centered near 17.6N 116.8W at 23/0300 UTC moving NNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. The system will turn to the west-northwest by midweek. Some slight strengthening is possible over the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. After that time, the system is expected to weaken. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing within 180 nm in the southwest semicircle. Please see the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave with axis along 89W extends southward Central America into the far eastern Pacific, moving west at about 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N-09N between 87W-92W. The wave is analyzed based upon continuity from earlier analyses. A tropical wave with axis near 102W is moving west at about 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N-18N between 96W-101W. This wave is primarily analyzed from the 700 mb trough diagnostics. A tropical wave with axis along 128W is moving west at about 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the wave and monsoon trough mainly south of 10N. This wave is analyzed from the 700 mb trough diagnostics and the total precipitable water imagery. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 09N107W, then resumes southwest of T.D. Five-E near 14N120W to 06N134W. The ITCZ extends from 06N134W to beyond 05N140W. Other than the areas of convection mentioned in the section above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N-14N and east of 111W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The primary forecast concern through mid-week will be the track of Tropical Depression Five-E, as detailed above. Winds and seas will increase near Clarion Island as Five-E makes its closest point of approach from tonight through Tue morning. Elsewhere, a weak pressure pattern across the region will produce only gentle to moderate winds and slight seas through Fri. No significant gap wind events or long-period swell are anticipated to affect the Mexican offshore zones for the next several days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The pressure gradient over Central America is forcing moderate to fresh E winds tonight near and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo before diminishing Tue. This gap wind event will restart again late Thu. Moderate S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough will build seas to 8 ft or greater off the coast of Panama and Colombia before diminishing late Tue. Seas will also build to 8 ft over the equatorial waters Thu and Fri as long-period southerly swell moves into the region. Note that the moderate and strong convection associated with the monsoon trough in the zones from Colombia to Guatemala is substantially more active than is typical. This is due to a Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave in the atmosphere, which is enhancing the showers and thunderstorms in the region. The enhanced convection should diminish by later in the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends from a 1027 mb high northwest of our area at 36N146W east-southeastward to near Baja California Sur. The weak pressure gradient south of the ridge is supporting moderate to fresh NE tradewinds. Fresh to strong S to SW winds equatorward of the monsoon trough will build seas to 9 ft from 05N-10N east of 100W before diminishing on Tue. Seas will build to 8 ft over the equatorial waters Thu and Fri as long-period southerly swell moves into the region. $$ ERA