000 AXPZ20 KNHC 221546 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1449 UTC Mon Jul 22 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Depression Five-E centered near 15.9N 116.3W at 22/1500 UTC moving N at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. This motion is expected to continue for the next day or so, with a gradual turn to the northwest by mid-week. Some slight strengthening is possible over the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is ongoing within 120 nm in the southwest semicircle of Tropical Depression Five-E. Please see latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC on hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave with axis near 87W extends southward Central America into the far eastern Pacific, moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N-11N between 85W-90W. The wave is weak and is mainly analyzed based upon continuity from earlier analyses. A tropical wave with axis near 100W is moving west around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N-12N between 97W-103W. This wave is primarily analyzed from the 700 mb trough diagnostics. A tropical wave with axis along 127W is moving west around 15 kt, which had led to the development of Tropical Depression Five-E. There is no significant convection associated with the wave at this time. This wave is analyzed from the 700 mb trough diagnostics and the total precipitable water imagery. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 09N108W, then a break to 12N118W to 06N132W. The ITCZ extends from 06N132W to 04N140W. Other than the areas of convection mentioned above, numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is present north of 05N east of 85W, north of 07N between 90W-97W, and from 05N-10N between 103W-108W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N-06N between 130W-135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The primary forecast concern through mid-week will be the track of Tropical Depression Five-E, as detailed above. Winds and seas will increase near Clarion Island as Five-E makes its closest point of approach tonight and Tue morning. Elsewhere, a weak pressure pattern across the region will produce only gentle to moderate winds and slight seas through at least Fri. No significant gap wind events or long-period swell are anticipated to affect the Mexican offshore zones for the next several days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A moderate N to S pressure gradient over Central America is forcing fresh E winds today near and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo before diminishing Tue. This gap wind event will restart again late Thu. Moderate S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough will build seas to 8 ft or greater off the coast of Panama and Colombia before diminishing late Tue. Seas will also build to 8 ft over the equatorial waters Thu and Fri as long-period southerly swell moves into the region. Note that the moderate and strong convection associated with the monsoon trough in the zones from Colombia to Guatemala is substantially more active than is typical. This is due to a Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave in the atmosphere, which is enhancing the showers and thunderstorms in the region. The enhanced convection should diminish by later in the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends from a 1026 mb high northwest of our area at 33N146W east-southeastward to near Baja California Sur. The weak pressure gradient south of the ridge is supporting moderate to fresh NE tradewinds. Fresh to strong S to SW winds equatorward of the monsoon trough will build seas to 9 ft from 05N-10N east of 100W before diminishing Tue. Seas will also build to 8 ft over the equatorial waters Thu and Fri as long- period southerly swell moves into the region. $$ Landsea