000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220908 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 908 UTC Mon Jul 22 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Newly formed Tropical Depression Five-E is centered near 15.0N 116.2W at 22/0900 UTC, moving N at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Five-E will continue to move northward today, and is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm near 17.9N 116.6W Tue morning. This was previously a gale center, and the gale warning associated with this low pressure area have been superseded by tropical storm advisories. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing within 120 nm in the northwest semicircle of the low pressure area. Please see latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC on hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave with axis near 85W extends southward from the western Caribbean Sea into the far eastern Pacific, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted north of the monsoon trough near the tropical wave from 08N to 11N east of 90W. A tropical wave with axis near 99W is moving west around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate is noted from 12N to 14N between 98W and 102W, and along the monsoon trough near the tropical wave from 07N to 10N between 95W and 105W . A tropical wave with axis along 126W is moving west around 10 to 15 kt. There is no significant convection associated with the wave at this time. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 08N100W to T.D. Five-E near 15N116W to 10N125W. The ITCZ extends from 08N127W to 05N140W. Other than the areas of convection mentioned above, numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 04N to 07N east of 80W, and within 60 nm of the of the coast of Guatemala and southern Mexico east of Puerto Angel. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The primary forecast concern through mid week will be the track of T.D. Five-E, forecast to move just west of Clarion Island by Tue morning as a tropical storm. Seas of 8-10 ft are expected to impact the waters near Clarion Island late tonight into Tue as the low moves past. Please see the Special Features section above for more information on this system. An upper level low just south of Baja California is supporting showers and thunderstorms along the eastern shore of the Gulf of California this morning. Weak ridging over the northern waters is supporting light to locally moderate NW winds off Baja California. The same ridge also supports gentle to moderate SE flow over the Gulf of California. Little change is expected over the next couple days. Weak high pressure building in the wake of the aforementioned low will enhance winds to fresh speeds along the coast south of Cabo Corrientes tonight into Tue. Otherwise, brief pulses to 20 kt are possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the middle of this week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The pressure gradient across Central America is maintaining fresh to strong NE to E winds near and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo. Fresh to locally strong winds will continue pulsing across the Gulf through early Tue with the strongest winds occurring during the overnight and early morning hours. Seas will peak around 8 ft each morning downstream of the Gulf. Fresh to strong winds will resume Thu night and continue through Sat. Elsewhere, moderate winds south of the monsoon trough will strengthen to fresh speeds tonight and Mon, with seas building to 8-9 ft off the coast of Panama and Colombia. Looking ahead, seas will build to 8 ft or greater over the southern waters Wed through Thu in long period S to SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Weak 1014 mb low pressure centered near 17N137W will open up into a trough later this morning then dissipate tonight. Moderate to fresh trade winds are occurring roughly north of 20N and west of 130W between weak ridging north of the area and the low pressure mentioned above. $$ Christensen