000 AXPZ20 KNHC 210316 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 315 UTC Sun Jul 21 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Gale warning: Recent satellite imagery indicates that a broad and elongated low pressure area located near 12N114W is becoming better organized. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical storm is likely to form within the next day or two. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is ongoing within 180 nm in the northern semicircle of the low pressure. Winds are expected to increase to minimal gale force by early Mon as the system becomes better organized, and there is a high chance of tropical storm development through late Mon. This disturbance is forecast to move generally northwestward at around 10 mph away from the coast of Mexico, although winds to gale force with seas to 12 ft may reach within 120 nm west of Clarion Island by early Tue. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave with axis near 93W is moving west around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough near the wave axis, from 07N to 09N between 90W and 93W, and from 09N to 12N between 95W and 101W. A tropical wave with axis near 108W is moving west around 10 kt. No significant convection is noted in the vicinity of this tropical wave. A tropical wave with axis along 117W is moving west at 10 kt, related to the low pressure near 12N114W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N100W to 14N110W to the low pressure near 12N114W to 08N125W. Another segment of the monsoon trough extends from 1010 mb low pressure near 18N134W to beyond 16N140W. No significant convection along the monsoon trough, other than what is described in the Special Feature and Tropical Wave sections above. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Elongated low pressure along Baja California has deepened, supporting moderate to fresh NW winds N of Punta Eugenia while gentle to moderate winds prevail W of Baja California Sur. These winds are forecast to continue through this evening. The area of low pressure associated with a surface trough also supports moderate to fresh southerly flow across the northern half of the Gulf of California, continuing through Mon. Please see the Special Features section above for more information about the potential for tropical cyclone development over the next few days. This system could produce increased winds and seas near the Revillagigedo Islands and the offshores of Baja California Sur early this week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The pressure gradient across Central America is maintaining fresh to strong NE to E winds near and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo. These winds will continue pulsing through early this week with the strongest winds occurring during the overnight and early morning hours. Seas will peak near 8 ft each morning downstream of the Gulf. Elsewhere, moderate winds south of the monsoon trough will briefly strengthen to fresh speeds Sun night and Mon, with seas building to 8 ft off the coast of Panama and Colombia. Looking ahead, seas will build to 8 ft or greater over the southern waters by mid week in long period S to SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A Kelvin wave moving across the central Pacific is supporting weak surface low pressure near 18N134W. This system is likely producing a small area of fresh winds with seas to 9 ft based on the latest model guidance. This low will rapidly weaken through tonight as it drifts northward while the Kelvin wave continues propagating eastward. Elsewhere, moderate trade winds are roughly north of 10N and west of 130W between weak ridging over the northern waters and the aforementioned low. $$ Christensen