000 AXPZ20 KNHC 202200 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Jul 20 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A large area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave with axis along 116W has changed little in organization today. However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days as it moves west-northwestward away from the coast of Mexico. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is from 07N to 14N between 111W and 122W. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook ABPZ20/KNHC TWOEP for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave with axis near 92W is moving west around 15-20 kt. No significant convection is associated with it presently. A tropical wave with axis near 106W is moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 08N to 17N between 102W and 111W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 07N95W to 14N110W to 07N127W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 13N between 123W and 128W. For further information on convection, see the special features and tropical waves section above. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Elongated low pressure along Baja California has deepen, supporting moderate to fresh NW winds N of Punta Eugenia while gentle to moderate winds prevail W of Baja California Sur. These winds are forecast to continue through Sun evening. The area of low pressure associated with a surface trough also supports moderate to fresh southerly flow across the northern half of the Gulf of California, continuing through Mon. Farther south, a tropical wave with axis near 106W continues to support showers and thunderstorms over the Mexican offshore waters between Acapulco and Manzanillo. Please see the Special Features section above for more information about the potential for tropical cyclone development over the next few days. This system could produce increased winds and seas near the Revillagigedo Islands and the offshores of Baja California Sur early this week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The pressure gradient across Central America is maintaining fresh to strong NE to E winds near and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo this morning. These winds will continue pulsing through early this week with the strongest winds occurring during the overnight and early morning hours. Seas will peak near 8 ft each morning downstream of the Gulf. Elsewhere, moderate winds south of the monsoon trough will briefly strengthen to fresh speeds Sun night and Mon, with seas building to 8 ft off the coast of Panama and Colombia. Looking ahead, seas will build to 8 ft or greater over the southern waters by mid week in long period S to SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A Kelvin wave moving across the central Pacific is supporting weak surface low pressure near 18N134W. This system is likely producing a small area of fresh winds with seas to 9 ft based on the latest model guidance. This low will rapidly weaken through tonight as it drifts northward while the Kelvin wave continues propagating eastward. Elsewhere, moderate trade winds are roughly north of 26N and west of 130W between weak ridging over the northern waters and the aforementioned low. Farther east, fresh to strong winds along with numerous showers and thunderstorms are occurring from 07N to 14N between 111W and 122W, in association with a tropical wave analyzed near 116W. Please see the Special Features section above for more information about the potential for tropical cyclone development in this region. $$ Ramos