000 AXPZ20 KNHC 201506 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1506 UTC Sat Jul 20 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A large area of disturbed weather is located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days as it moves west-northwestward away from the coast of Mexico. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook ABPZ20/KNHC TWOEP for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave with axis near 90W is moving west around 15-20 kt. No significant convection is noted. A tropical wave with axis near 105W is moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 10N to 15N within 120 nm of the wave axis and from 15N to 18N between 101W and 108W. A tropical wave with axis near 117W is moving west around 15 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted within 90 nm of a line from 13N112W to 09N120W. There is a high chance this area of disturbed weather develops into a tropical cyclone within the next five days. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook ABPZ20/KNHC TWOEP for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N77W to 06N83W to 13N110W to 06N130W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm of the monsoon trough between 112W and 125W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 180 nm south of the monsoon trough east of 88W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weak ridging north of 20N continues to support gentle to moderate NW winds off the coast of Baja California per a partial overnight scatterometer pass. Meanwhile, a surface trough over the Baja California peninsula is expected to deepen today, resulting in moderate to fresh southerly flow across the Gulf of California. Moderate SE flow will persist over the Gulf through Sun, then diminish by Mon. Farther south, a tropical wave with axis near 105W continues to support showers and thunderstorms over the Mexican offshore waters between Acapulco and Manzanillo. Elsewhere, a narrow area of fresh to locally strong gap winds will continue pulsing over the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the middle of the upcoming week. Please see the Special Features section above for more information about the potential for tropical cyclone development over the next few days. This system could produce increased winds and seas near the Revillagigedo Islands early this week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The pressure gradient across Central America is maintaining fresh to strong NE to E winds near and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo this morning. These winds will continue pulsing through early this week with the strongest winds occurring during the overnight and early morning hours. Seas will peak near 8 ft each morning downstream of the Gulf. Elsewhere, moderate winds south of the monsoon trough will briefly strengthen to fresh speeds Sun night and Mon, with seas building to 8 ft off the coast of Panama and Colombia. Looking ahead, seas will build to 8 ft or greater over the southern waters by mid week in long period S to SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A Kelvin wave moving across the central Pacific is supporting weak surface low pressure near 17N134W. This system is likely producing a small area of fresh to strong winds with seas to 9 ft based on the latest model guidance and overnight scatterometer and altimeter data. This low will rapidly weaken through tonight as it drifts northward while the Kelvin wave continues propagating eastward. Elsewhere, moderate trade winds persist roughly north of 17N and west of 130W between weak ridging over the northern waters and the aforementioned low. Farther east, fresh to locally strong winds along with numerous showers and thunderstorms are occurring on either side of the monsoon trough between 115W-120W, in association with a tropical wave analyzed near 117W. Please see the Special Features section above for more information about the potential for tropical cyclone development in this region. $$ Reinhart