962 AXPZ20 KNHC 200922 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 921 UTC Sat Jul 20 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave with axis near 86W is moving west at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection are noted. A tropical wave with axis near 104W is moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 08N to 12N between 100W and 105W, and within 120 nm of the coast of Mexico between 100W and 105W. A tropical wave with axis near 115W is moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm of a line from 07N121W to 13N112W. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week. There is a high chance this area of disturbed weather evolve into a tropical cyclone within the next five days. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook ABPZ20/KNHC TWOEP for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 13N110W to 10N120W to 17N135W to 13N140W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 08N to 12N between 100W and 105W, and within 90 nm of a line from 07N121W to 13N112W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weak ridging north of 20N continues to support gentle to moderate NW winds off the coast of Baja California. A surface trough over the Baja California peninsula supports light to gentle southerly flow across the Gulf of California. A mid level trough moving off north central Mexico will allow the trough to deepen today, supporting moderate to fresh southerly winds over the Gulf. Light to gentle winds are expected to resume by Mon. Farther south, a tropical wave with axis along 104W continue to support showers and thunderstorms over the Mexican offshore waters between Acapulco and Manzanillo. A surface trough moving off the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche at night will support pulses of fresh to strong gap winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Sun. Gentle to moderate northerly winds will dominate afterwards through early next week. Looking ahead, global models continue to indicate some development along the tropical wave currently with axis near 115W. This could bring increased winds and seas to the Revillagigedo Islands by early next week, although the forecast remains highly uncertain at this time. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The pressure gradient across Central America is maintaining fresh to strong NE to E winds near and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo, as noted in an earlier scatterometer pass. These winds will persist through the weekend with seas peaking near 8 ft each morning. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds south of the monsoon trough will briefly strengthen to fresh speeds later this weekend, but seas are expected to remain less than 8 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Moderate trade winds persist roughly north of 13N and west of 130W between weak ridging over the northern waters and 1011 mb low pressure along the now monsoon trough near 17N135W being induced by a Kelvin Wave entering the area. Scatterometer data show fresh to strong S to SW winds within 90 nm on the southeast quadrant of the low pressure where altimeter data show seas in the 8 to 9 ft range. Winds and seas associated with this area of low pressure will subside by Sun. Farther east, fresh winds are in the vicinity of a tropical wave with axis near 115W. This feature has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next five days. Please see the Tropical Waves section above for more information about its potential for tropical cyclone development. $$ Christensen