000 AXPZ20 KNHC 192205 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Jul 19 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave with axis near 83W is moving west at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 8.5N between 82W and 86W. A tropical wave with axis near 101W is moving west at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 09N to 16N between 94W and 103W. A tropical wave with axis near 112W is moving west at 20 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted from 08N to 16N between 103W and 118W. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form early next week before the system reaches cooler waters. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook ABPZ20/KNHC TWOEP for more information. A tropical wave with axis near 137W is moving west at 20 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is from 09N to 17N west of 127W. This system remains disorganized, and conditions are becoming less conducive for tropical cyclone formation. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook ABPZ20/KNHC TWOEP for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N86W to 08N97W to 13N111W. The ITCZ extends from 10N114W to 07N119W to 07N122W, then resumes from 14N124W to 15N130W to 13N136W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 08N between 113W and 122W. For more information on convection, see the tropical waves section above. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weak ridging north of 20N continues to support gentle to moderate NW winds off the coast of Baja California per latest scatterometer data. A surface trough over the Baja California peninsula supports light to gentle southerly flow across the Gulf of California. However, a low to mid-level trough is expected to emerge off north central Mexico and drift across the region over the weekend, thus resulting in moderate to fresh southerly winds over the Gulf. Light to gentle winds are expected to resume by Mon. Farther south, a tropical wave with axis along 101W continue to support showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Guerrero and Oaxaca offshore waters. A surface trough moving off the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche at night will support pulses of fresh to strong gap winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Sun. Gentle to moderate northerly winds will dominate afterwards through early next week. Looking ahead, various global models indicate some development along the tropical wave currently with axis near 112W. This could bring increased winds and seas to the Revillagigedo Islands by early next week, although the forecast remains highly uncertain at this time. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The pressure gradient across Central America is maintaining fresh to strong NE to E winds near and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo. These winds will persist through the weekend with seas peaking near 8 ft each morning. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds south of the monsoon trough will briefly strengthen to fresh speeds later this weekend, but seas are expected to remain less than 8 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Moderate to fresh trade winds persist roughly north of 14N and west of 130W between weak ridging over the northern waters and lower pressure along the ITCZ. Recent scatterometer data show S to SW winds from 10N to 14N W of 131W where the latest altimeter data show seas in the 8 to 11 ft range. This is associated with a tropical wave moving across this region, which is expected to weaken into a trough on Sat. This will allow for winds and seas to subside by early Sun. Farther east, fresh winds were noted associated with the tropical wave located near 112W. This feature has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next five days. Please see the Tropical Waves section above for more information about its potential for tropical cyclone development. $$ Ramos