000 AXPZ20 KNHC 191508 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1508 UTC Fri Jul 19 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave with axis near 99W is moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from 11N to 17N between 97W and 104W. A tropical wave with axis near 111W is moving west around 15 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted from 11N to 15N within 180 nm of the wave axis. Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form early next week before the system reaches cooler waters. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook ABPZ20/KNHC TWOEP for more information. A tropical wave with axis near 132.5W is moving west around 15 kt. A poorly defined 1006 mb surface low is analyzed along the wave axis near 12N132.5W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring within 180 nm north semicircle of the low. This system remains disorganized, and conditions are becoming less conducive for tropical cyclone formation. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook ABPZ20/KNHC TWOEP for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N76W to 09N92W. The ITCZ extends from 12N111W to 07N116W to 06N123W, then resumes from 12N133W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 240 nm south of the monsoon trough between 80W and 86W, within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 113W and 118W, and within 180 nm north of the ITCZ west of 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weak ridging north of 20N is supporting gentle to moderate NW winds off the coast of Baja California per overnight scatterometer data. Meanwhile, the resident trough over the peninsula is supporting gentle southerly flow across the Gulf of California. A low to mid-level trough is expected to emerge off north central Mexico and drift across the region today through Sat, resulting in a slight increase in wind speeds over the Gulf this weekend. A more benign pattern will return early next week. Farther south, the weak tropical wave that moved across the Gulf of Tehuantepec overnight is supporting showers and thunderstorms over the southern offshore waters. Strong offshore gap winds were noted in overnight scatterometer data across the Gulf. Ridging in the wake of the tropical wave and across the Gulf of Mexico will support pulses of strong gap winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Sat. Fresh gap winds will likely continue across the Gulf through early next week. Looking ahead, various global models indicate some development along the tropical wave currently south of Baja California. This could bring increased winds and seas to the Revillagigedo Islands by early next week, although the forecast remains highly uncertain at this time. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The pressure gradient across Central America is maintaining fresh to strong NE to E winds near and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo. These winds will persist through the weekend and into early next week, with seas peaking near 8 ft each morning. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds south of the monsoon trough will briefly strengthen to fresh speeds later this weekend, but seas are expected to remain less than 8 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Moderate to fresh trade winds persist roughly north of 12N and west of 135W between weak ridging over the northern waters and lower pressure along the ITCZ. Recent altimeter data indicates 8 ft seas extend as far east as 132W, likely in combined NE wind waves and mixed swell. Broad low pressure will persist west of 135W through early next week, with peak seas remaining near 8 ft. Farther east, fresh winds were noted overnight with the tropical wave located south of Baja California. This feature has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next five days. Please see the Tropical Waves section above for more information about its potential for tropical cyclone development. $$ Reinhart