000 AXPZ20 KNHC 182128 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1928 UTC Thu Jul 18 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave with axis near 93W is moving west around 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted south of 15N between 90W-96W. A tropical wave with axis near 105W is moving west around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the northern portion of the wave north of 08N between 99W-108W. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for gradual development as the wave moves westward to west- northwestward, and a tropical depression could form early next week. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook ABPZ20/KNHC TWOEP for more information. A tropical wave with axis near 128W is moving west around 10-15 kt. A 1008 mb surface low is analyzed along the wave axis near 12N128W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N-15N between 120W-130W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some development during the next two to three days while the disturbance moves northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. After that time, conditions are expected to become less favorable for development. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook ABPZ20/KNHC TWOEP for more information. Upper-level winds appear to be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression could form during the next two or three days while the disturbance moves northwestward. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook ABPZ20/KNHC TWOEP for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Panama near 08N79W to 10N96W. The ITCZ extends from 10N96W to 10N103W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 09N107W to 12N126W. ITCZ resumes once again from 11N130W to beyond 10N140W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ between 100W-104W and west of 122W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Scatterometer data across the Baja California offshore waters showed light to gentle winds over the region. Meanwhile, fresh to strong winds were depicted over the southern waters a couple hundred miles south of Acapulco in association with a tropical wave currently near 105W. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and the monsoon trough is supporting fresh to strong N gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with seas reaching 8 ft. Fresh to strong winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Sat morning, then diminish into early next week as high pressure weakens over the Gulf of Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The pressure gradient across Central America is maintaining fresh to strong NE to E winds near and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo. These winds will persist through the weekend and into early next week, with associated seas peaking 8 ft each morning. The monsoon trough crosses the offshore waters around 09N, and the latest satellite imagery and lightning data reveal widely scattered showers and thunderstorms south of the trough. Winds in this region should remain gentle to moderate for the next several days. Seas to 8 ft in southerly swell will persist south of the Galapagos Islands through the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends from distant high pressure well NW of the region across the northern waters toward the Revillagigedo Islands. Latest scatterometer data showed fresh to locally strong NE winds south of the ridge over the waters from 13N to 26N west of 130W. Corresponding altimeter data indicated 7-9 ft seas in this region. These trade winds will diminish to moderate speeds Fri into Sat as the high weakens and the gradient relaxes. Elsewhere, combined seas will remain around 8 ft in southerly swell over the far southern waters for the next couple days. Please see the Tropical Waves section above for more information about the potential for tropical cyclone development over the next several days. $$ ERA