000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180911
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Jul 18 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0830 UTC. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave with axis near 91W is moving west at 15 kt. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 11.5N between 
89W and 93W. The wave is evident from 700 mb trough diagnostics.

A tropical wave with axis near 103W is moving west at 15 kt. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 09N between 
100W and 104W. The wave is evident from 700 mb trough 
diagnostics. Environmental conditions are forecast to become 
more conducive for gradual development later this week, and a 
tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next 
week. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical 
Weather Outlook ABPZ20/KNHC TWOEP for more information.

A tropical wave with axis near 125W is moving west around 10 kt. 
A 1007 mb low is analyzed along the wave axis near 12N125W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 
122W-126W. The wave is evident from 700 mb trough diagnostics 
and a maximum in the total precipitable water imagery. Upper 
level winds are conducive for further development, and a 
tropical depression could form during the next two or three 
days. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical 
Weather Outlook ABPZ20/KNHC TWOEP for more information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from Panama near 07N78W to 10N91W to 
09N103W to 07N110W. The ITCZ extends from 07N110W to 11N118W to 
12N123W, with a break for a tropical wave, then from 11N128W to 
beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
noted from 06N to 08N between 78W and 83W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The gradient between high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and 
the monsoon trough is inducing fresh to occasionally strong N 
gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere winds and 
seas are quiescent. No tropical cyclone activity is anticipated 
in the Mexican offshore zones through at least Mon night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The pressure gradient across Central America is inducing fresh 
to occasionally strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo. 
These winds will persist for several days. South of the monsoon 
trough along about 08N, S to SW winds should remain gentle to 
moderate for the next several days. No significant long-period 
swell will impact the equatorial or Central American zones for 
the next several days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

High pressure north of the area extends a ridge from 30N123W to 
25N115W. The pressure gradient south of the ridge is producing 
fresh to locally strong NE trade winds north of the convergence 
zone axis. The tropical waves currently at 102W and 125W have 
some potential for developing into tropical cyclones during the 
next several days, though no development is likely by Fri night. 
A long-period SW swell will increase combined seas to 8 ft along 
the equator through Sat before diminishing.

$$
Mundell