000 AXPZ20 KNHC 180204 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0204 UTC Thu Jul 18 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave with axis near 90W is moving west 15 to 20 kt. No significant deep convection is noted with the system over the Pacific Ocean. The wave is primarily detected from the 700 mb trough diagnostics. A tropical wave with axis near 102W is moving west 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N-15N between 99W- 103W. The wave is primarily detected from the SW Mexican rawindsondes this evening as well as the 700 mb trough diagnostics. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for gradual development late this week, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=5 A tropical wave with axis near 125W is moving west around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N-12N between 124W-126W. The wave is primarily detected from the 700 mb trough diagnostics as well as a maximum in the total precipitable water imagery. During the day, a well-defined surface low of about 1007 mb formed near 12N125W. Upper-level winds appear to be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression could form during the next two or three days while the disturbance moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Panama near 08N78W to 09N109W. The ITCZ extends from 09N109W to 12N123W, with a break for a tropical wave, then from 12N126W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N-10N between 95W-99W. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N-15N between 118W-123W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A moderate pressure gradient between high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and the monsoon trough is producing fresh to strong N gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These should continue through Sat before weakening. Elsewhere winds and seas are quiescent. No tropical cyclone activity is anticipated in the Mexican offshore zones through at least Mon night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A N to S pressure gradient across Central America is forcing fresh to strong NE to E winds near and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo. These winds - mainly late night and early morning - will continue through at least Mon night. South of the monsoon trough along about 08N, S to SW winds should remain gentle to moderate for the next several days. No significant long-period swell will impact the equatorial or Central American zones for the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge of high pressure extends a 1032 mb high near 38N152W to 30N123W to 25N115W. The pressure gradient south of the ridge is producing fresh to strong NE tradewinds north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. The tropical waves currently at 102W and 125W have some potential for developing into tropical cyclones during the next several days, though no development is likely by Friday night. A long-period SW swell will contribute toward combined seas of near 8 ft along the equator through Sat before diminishing. $$ Landsea