000 AXPZ20 KNHC 162110 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2034 UTC Tue Jul 16 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave with axis near 94W N of 03N is moving west around 15 kt. A broad cyclonic surface circulation is associated with this wave and a low is analyzed to have formed near 09N93W along the wave axis. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 10N-14N between 88W-97W, and from 06N to 10N between 90W and 93W. Environmental conditions are forecast to become conducive for gradual development later this week, and a tropical depression could form by the weekend as it moves well south of the coast of Mexico. A tropical wave with axis near 113W from 03N to 20N is moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 06N to 10N between 109W and 120W. A tropical wave with axis near 134W from 03N to 15N is moving west around 15 kt. No significant deep convection is currently occurring in association with this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 11N92W to 10N101W to 13N120W to 10N128W. The ITCZ extends from 10N128W to 09N133W. It resumes from 09N136W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 83W and 86W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 08N to 13N between 97W and 107W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 10N to 13N between 120W and 130W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 08N to 10N W of 138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface high well west of California is contributing to quiescent winds over most of the Mexican offshore zones through Sun. A complex low pressure system over the U.S. Great Basin is forcing SE fresh to strong breeze over the central and northern Gulf of California through Wed. A surface high over the Gulf of Mexico combined with the monsoon trough will force a N fresh to strong gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec from Wed through Fri. No tropical cyclone activity is expected to impact the Mexican offshore zones for the next several days. No significant long period-swell should affect the area through at least Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A moderate N to S pressure gradient across Central America is forcing NE to E winds up to strong breeze in the Gulf of Papagayo through at least Sat. Elsewhere E winds should remain moderate or weaker north of the monsoon trough along 09N/10N, and S to SW moderate breeze or weaker south of the trough. No tropical cyclone activity is expected to impact the Central America offshore zones for the next several days. No significant long- period swell should affect the area through at least Sat. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1026 mb high centered just northwest of our area at 32N142W combined with low pressure along the monsoon trough/ITCZ is contributing toward moderate to fresh NE tradewinds for the next several days. Environmental conditions for the 1008 mb low near 09N93W are forecast to become conducive for gradual development later this week, and a tropical depression could form by the weekend as it moves well south of the coast of Mexico. No significant long period-swell should affect the area through at least Sat. $$ AL