000 AXPZ20 KNHC 161518 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1436 UTC Tue Jul 16 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave with axis near 93W from 03N to 15N is moving west around 15 kt. A broad cyclonic surface circulation is associated with this wave and a low is analyzed to have formed near 09N93W along the wave axis. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 10N-14N between 88W-95W. Environmental conditions are forecast to become conducive for gradual development later this week, and a tropical depression could form by the weekend as it moves well south of the coast of Mexico. A tropical wave with axis near 113W from 03N to 17N is moving west around 15 kt. The system is identifiable as a maximum in the total precipitable water as well as GFS- and ECMWF-based 700 mb trough diagnostics. No significant deep convection is currently occurring in association with this wave. A tropical wave with axis near 133W from 03N to 15N is moving west around 15 kt. The system is identifiable as a maximum in the total precipitable water as well as GFS- and ECMWF-based 700 mb trough diagnostics. No significant deep convection is currently occurring in association with this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from a 1011 mb low at 10N81W over the SW Caribbean Sea to a 1000 mb low near 09N93W to 10N128W. The ITCZ extends from 10N128W to 10N132W, then resumes from 09N134W to beyond 08N140W. In addition to the convection noted in association with waves above, scattered moderate convection is occurring within 180 nm of the trough between 95W and 105W as well as within 180 nm south of the trough from 115W to 120W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface high well west of California is contributing to quiescent winds over most of the Mexican offshore zones through Sat. A complex low pressure system over the U.S. Great Basin is forcing SE fresh to strong breeze over the central and northern Gulf of California today and Wed. A surface high over the Gulf of Mexico combined with the monsoon trough will force a N fresh to strong gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec from Wed through Sat morning. No tropical cyclone activity is expected to impact the Mexican offshore zones for the next several days. No significant long period-swell should affect the area through at least Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A moderate N to S pressure gradient across Central America is forcing NE to E winds up to strong breeze in the Gulf of Papagayo through at least Sat. Elsewhere E winds should remain moderate or weaker north of the monsoon trough along 10N, and S to SW moderate breeze or weaker south of the trough. No tropical cyclone activity is expected to impact the Central America offshore zones for the next several days. No significant long- period swell should affect the area through at least Sat. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1025 mb high centered just northwest of our area at 33N143W combined with low pressure along the monsoon trough/ITCZ is contributing toward moderate to fresh NE tradewinds for the next several days. Environmental conditions for the 1008 mb low near 09N93W are forecast to become conducive for gradual development later this week, and a tropical depression could form by the weekend as it moves well south of the coast of Mexico. No significant long period-swell should affect the area through at least Sat. $$ Landsea