000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142040
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2030 UTC Sun Jul 14 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2040 UTC. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave across the western Caribbean extends
southward into the eastern Pacific near 83W. Scattered moderate 
and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 10N E of 86W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 93W, moving westward around 
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 12N
between 90W and 93W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 07.583w to 12N108W to
08N130W. The ITCZ continues from 08N130W to 08N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 14N
between 99W and 104W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 90 nm S of the monsoon trough between 106W and 130W. 
Scattered maturate convection is noted within 90 nm S of the 
ITCZ between 130W and 134W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A weak pressure pattern prevails over the forecast waters. This
afternoon's scatterometer pass indicates light and variable winds
prevail across the forecast waters. Southerly swell continues to
impact the southern portion of the forecast area, with seas in
the 6-7 ft range S of 20N. Seas in the 5-6 ft range prevail N of
20N, and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. The southerly swell
will gradually subside over the next couple of days. A low 
pressure trough along Baja California will deepen on Tue and 
support strengthening SE flow over the Gulf of California through
mid week. Expect fresh to strong winds over the northern and 
central Gulf and moderate winds across the southern portion, with
winds peaking Tue night into Wed. Northerly swell will propagate
into the waters off Baja California Norte, with seas in the 6-8
ft range Tue and Wed before subsiding. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough is positioned along 08N-09N across the 
Central American offshore waters. Latest scatterometer pass
indicates moderate to fresh SW flow south of the trough, and
moderate to fresh NE winds N of the monsoon trough. Winds will
pulse to fresh to strong across the Gulf of Papagayo during the 
overnight hours through the forecast period. Winds will diminish
S of the monsoon trough early next week. 

SW swell continues to impact the forecast waters, with seas in 
the 6-8 ft range prevailing. Seas will gradually subside early 
next week and fall below 8 ft by Mon night.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

Winds associated to Post-Tropical Cyclone Four-E have diminished
to 20 kt or less, with seas falling below 8 ft. 

High pressure is centered N of the forecast area near 32N137W.
The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to
fresh tradewinds N of the ITCZ to 20N and west of 130W. Seas over
this area are in the 7-8 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh 
winds prevail S of the monsoon trough.

Long period S to SW swell remains across much of the southern 
waters. The latest altimeter data indicates 7-9 ft seas cover 
much of the area south of 10N and east of 120W. Seas will 
gradually subside through the early part of the week. 

$$
AL