000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141515 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1515 UTC Sun Jul 14 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Post-Tropical Cyclone Four-E is centered near 18.4N 115.9W at 14/1500 UTC moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. A turn toward the west and a decrease in forward speed are expected by tonight, with this motion continuing on Monday. The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to dissipate by Monday night. No significant convection is noted with this system. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave extends southward from the western Caribbean into the eastern Pacific along 83W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring north of 04N and east of 85W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 95W, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 14N to 16N within 120 nm east of the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 15N108W, then resumes from 14N117W to 09N124W to 08N134W. The ITCZ extends from 08N134W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of the monsoon trough between 89W and 91W, within 240 nm north of the monsoon trough between 97W and 107W, and from 05N to 11N between 115W and 132W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for more information on Post-Tropical Cyclone Four-E. Overnight scatterometer data indicated light to gentle winds prevailed across much of the Mexican offshore waters. A weak high pressure ridge over the Baja California waters will move westward over the next couple days, resulting in gentle to moderate NW flow off the Baja California peninsula Mon through Thu. Elsewhere, a low pressure trough along Baja California will deepen on Tue and support strengthening SE flow over the Gulf of California through mid week. Expect fresh to strong winds over the northern and central Gulf and moderate winds across the southern portion, with winds peaking Tue night into Wed. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Tue through Thu. Long period S to SW swell will continue to impact the forecast waters off Mexico through early next week, but seas are forecast to generally remain less 8 ft. Seas may build to 8 ft over the waters off Baja California Norte on Tue as SW swell mixes with northerly wind waves. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Recent altimeter data showed seas to 10 ft downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo as SW swell mixes with wind waves generated by fresh offshore flow. Fresh to strong offshore winds will pulse across and well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight and early morning hours through Thu. Wave heights will peak around 8-9 ft downstream of the Gulf each morning. Elsewhere, the monsoon trough remains positioned around 09N-10N across the Central American offshore waters. Moderate to fresh SW flow will prevail south of the trough through mid week. Long period SW swell continues propagating northward across the region. Altimeter data off the coast of Costa Rica and Panama indicates 8 ft seas extend as far north as 08N. Seas will gradually subside early next week and fall below 8 ft by Mon night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Overnight scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh NE trade winds from 12N to 18N west of 130W, while altimeter data indicated seas to 8 ft in this region. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate N to NE flow prevails between a weak high pressure ridge over the northern waters and the monsoon trough. Long period S to SW swell remains across much of the southern waters this morning. The latest altimeter data indicates 7-9 ft seas cover much of the area south of 10N and east of 120W. Seas will gradually subside through Mon evening. $$ Reinhart