000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140907
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Jul 14 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Four-E centered near 18.2N 114.8W at 14/0900 
UTC moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 
1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 
kt. Shear continues to impact the system, with only scattered 
moderate convection noted southwest of the system center from 
17N to 18N between 113W and 115W. The depression is forecast to 
weaken to a remnant low Sun evening, then dissipate by Mon. See 
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers 
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave near 91W is moving westward around 5-
10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
noted from 07N to 12N between 84W and 91W, and from 05N to 08N 
between 92W and 97W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 10N97W to 13N105W to 
10N117W to 09N130W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is 
N of 01N E of 84W, and from 05N to 11N between 109W and 131W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Please see Special Features section above for more on TD Four-E.

A trough of low pressure along the Baja California Peninsula 
will deepen early on Tue, resulting in fresh SE winds. These 
winds are expected to increase to strong in the northern portion 
of the gulf on Tue morning, continuing through Wed evening. 

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NW flow will prevail across the 
Baja California offshore waters through Thu. Long period S to SW 
swell will continue to impact the forecast waters off Mexico 
through Thu, however seas are forecast to remain less 8 ft.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough is positioned near 09/10N across the Central 
American offshore waters. Moderate to fresh SW flow will prevail 
south of the trough through early next week. Elsewhere, fresh to 
locally strong offshore winds will pulse across and downstream 
of the Gulf of Papagayo at night through Tue then resumes 
briefly on Thu. Wave heights will peak around 8-9 ft downstream 
of the Gulf each morning. 

Long period SW swell continues propagating northward across the 
region. Seas 8 to 9 ft ft extend as far north as 07N. Seas will 
gradually subside below 8 ft Mon evening.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

The pressure gradient between high pressure centered north of 
30N and lower pressure associated with the monsoon trough is 
supporting moderate to fresh tradewinds over the waters north of 
the monsoon trough to around 20N and west of 125W. Seas to 8 ft 
prevail from 07N to 17N west of 130W in SW swell and NE wind 
waves.

Elsewhere, long period S to SW swell prevails across much of the 
southern waters east of 120W. Latest altimeter data continue to 
show 8-9 ft seas covering much of the area south of 17N and east 
of 115W. Seas will gradually subside through Mon evening.

$$
NR