942 AXPZ20 KNHC 140237 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0230 UTC Sun Jul 14 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Four-E centered near 17.7N 113.7W at 14/0300 UTC moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Shear continues to impact the system, with only scattered moderate convection noted west of the system center from 15N to 20N between 114W and 118W. The depression is forecast to weaken to a remnant low tomorrow, then dissipate by Tue. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave near 90W is moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 11N between 85W and 94W. The axis of a tropical wave near 103W is moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 95W and 104W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N79W to 09N84W to 10N89W to 10N96W to 13N104W to 10N117W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 107W and 117W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 117W and 127W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 10N to 12N between 135W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section above for more on TD Four-E. A low pressure trough over the Gulf of California will help produce fresh SE to S winds over the northern Gulf overnight. Wind speeds will diminish Sun through Mon, then increase Tue through Wed with fresh to strong winds across the northern and central Gulf. Elsewhere, gentle NW flow across the Baja California offshore waters will persist through the remainder of the weekend, then strengthen to moderate to locally fresh speeds off Baja California Norte early next week. Long period S to SW swell will continue impacting the forecast waters off Mexico through the weekend before subsiding early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough is positioned near 09/10N across the Central American offshore waters. Moderate to fresh SW flow will prevail south of the trough through early next week. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong offshore winds will pulse across and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo for the next couple of nights. Wave heights will peak around 8-9 ft downstream of the Gulf each morning. Long period SW swell continues propagating northward across the region. Seas 8 ft or greater ft extend as far north as 07N. Seas will gradually subside below 8 ft early next week as the swell decays. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between high pressure north of 30N and lower pressure associated with the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh tradewinds over the waters north of the monsoon trough to around 20N and west of 125W. Seas to 8 ft are noted from 11N to 15N west of 133W in SW swell and NE wind waves. Elsewhere, long period S to SW swell prevails across much of the southern waters east of 120W. Recent altimeter data reveals 7-9 ft seas covering much of the area south of 12N and east of 115W. Seas will gradually subside through early next week. $$ AL