000 AXPZ20 KNHC 132051 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2050 UTC Sat Jul 13 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Four-E centered near 17.5N 112.4W at 13/2100 UTC moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. The system is forecast to move toward the west- northwest for the next day or two. Gradual weakening is anticipated, and the system is forecast to become a remnant low on Sunday. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted within 90 nm W semicircle, and scattered moderate convection is noted elsewhere from 14N to 19N between 112W and 116W. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave near 89W is moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 85W and 93W. The axis of a tropical wave near 102W is moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 16N between 96W and 104W. The axis of a tropical wave near 139W is moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 13N between 135W and 140W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N79W to 08N82W to 13N104W, then resumes from 09N116W to 09N125W to 11N133W to 11N138W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted north of 04N east of 85W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 113W and 125W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section above for more on TD Four-E. A low pressure trough over the Gulf of California will help produce fresh to locally strong SE to S winds over the northern Gulf through tonight. Wind speeds will diminish Sun through Mon, then increase Tue through Wed with fresh to strong winds across the northern and central Gulf. Elsewhere, gentle NW flow across the Baja California offshore waters will persist through the remainder of the weekend, then strengthen to moderate to fresh speeds early next week. Long period S to SW swell will continue impacting the forecast waters off Mexico through the weekend before subsiding early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough is positioned near 09N across the Central American offshore waters. Moderate to fresh SW flow will prevail south of the trough through early next week. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong offshore winds will pulse across and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo for the next couple of nights. Wave heights will peak around 8-9 ft downstream of the Gulf each morning. Long period SW swell continues propagating northward across the region. Seas 8 ft or greater ft extend as far north as 06N. Seas will gradually subside below 8 ft early next week as the swell decays. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between high pressure north of 30N and lower pressure associated with the monsoon trough is supporting moderate tradewinds over the waters north of the monsoon trough to around 20N and west of 125W. Seas to 8 ft are noted from 11N to 15N west of 133W in mixed NE and S swell. Elsewhere, long period S to SW swell prevails across much of the southern waters east of 120W. Recent altimeter data reveals 7-9 ft seas covering much of the area south of 12N and east of 115W. Seas will subside early next week as swell decays over the region. $$ AL