000 AXPZ20 KNHC 131516 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1516 UTC Sat Jul 13 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Four-E is centered near 17.3N 111.0W at 13/1500 UTC moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. The system is forecast to move toward the west- northwest or west for the next day or two. Gradual weakening is anticipated, and the system is forecast to become a remnant low on Sunday. It will likely dissipate on Monday. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 90 nm W semicircle, and scattered moderate convection is noted elsewhere from 15N to 18N between 110W and 113W. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave near 89W is moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 09N within 120 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave near 101W is moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 13N within 90 nm west of the wave axis. A tropical wave near 138W is moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 133W and 140W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 10N89W to 12N104W, then resumes from 11N115W to 10N124W to 12N131W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted north of 04N east of 85W, and within 360 nm north of the monsoon trough between 90W and 100W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 180 nm south of the monsoon trough between 115W and 128W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section above for more on TD Four-E. A low pressure trough over the Gulf of California will strengthen today, resulting in fresh to locally strong SE to S winds over the northern Gulf later today into tonight. Wind speeds will diminish Sun through Mon, then increase Tue through Wed with fresh to strong winds across the northern and central Gulf. Elsewhere, gentle NW flow across the Baja California offshore waters will persist through the weekend, then strengthen to moderate to fresh speeds early next week. Long period S to SW swell will continue impacting the Mexican offshore waters through the weekend. Another set of long period SW swell will move across the forecast waters on Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough axis is positioned near 09N across the Central American offshore waters. Moderate to fresh SW flow will prevail south of the trough through early next week. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong offshore winds will pulse across and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo for the next few nights. Wave heights will peak around 8-9 ft downstream of the Gulf each morning. Recent altimeter data shows 8-10 ft seas between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands as long period SW swell continues propagating northward across the region. Seas to 8 ft extend as far north as 04-05N off the coast of Colombia. Another set of long period SW swell will move into the southern waters on Sun. Seas will gradually subside below 8 ft early next week as the swell decays. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between high pressure north of 30N and lower pressure associated with the monsoon trough is supporting generally moderate NE winds over the waters north of 11N. A tropical wave near 138W is likely producing fresh winds with seas to 8 ft in the vicinity of its axis. This wave will continue moving westward today with its associated conditions passing west of 140W. Elsewhere, long period S to SW swell prevails across much of the southern waters east of 120W. Recent altimeter data reveals 7-9 ft seas covering much of the area south of 11N and east of 115W. Another set of long period SW swell over the far southern waters will move NE through the weekend. Seas will subside early next week as swell decays over the region. $$ Reinhart