441 
AXPZ20 KNHC 130917
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Jul 13 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0830 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Four-E centered near 16.8N 109.7W at 13/0900 
UTC moving NW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 
1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 
kt. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers 
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details. Numerous moderate to 
strong convection is noted within 60 nm W semicircle. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 15N 
to 18N between 109W and 112W. See latest NHC forecast/advisory 
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave near 88W is moving westward at 15 to 
20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
noted from 05N to 09N between 85W and 90W.

The axis of a tropical wave near 99W is moving westward around 
15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
from 07N to 11N between 98W and 102W.

The axis of a tropical wave near 137W is moving westward around 
15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
from 07N to 12N between 135W and 140W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 12N102W. It resumes 
west of TD Four-E near 11N116W to 11N129W. The ITCZ continues 
from 11N129W to 11N136W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 87W and 95W.
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Please see Special Features above for more on TD Four-E. 

Elsewhere, large long period S to SW swell will impact the 
offshore waters south of Mexico through the weekend. A low 
pressure trough will strengthen over the Gulf of California this 
weekend, resulting in fresh SE to S winds over the northern and 
central Gulf today and tonight with moderate winds over the 
southern portion. These winds will diminish Sun through Mon, 
then strengthen to fresh again Tue and Tue night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough acis remains near 10N, and moderate to fresh 
SW flow will prevail south of the trough through the weekend. 
Elsewhere, fresh offshore winds will pulse across and downstream 
of the Gulf of Papagayo for the next few nights. Wave heights 
will peak around 8-9 ft downstream of the Gulf each morning. 

Large, long period SW swell propagating across the region is 
supporting wave heights to 10 ft south of the Galapagos Islands. 
Seas will build to 8 ft or greater across most of the forecast 
waters into Sat and persist through the weekend. Seas will 
subside early next week as the swell decays.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

The pressure gradient between high pressure north of 30N and the
monsoon trough/ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally fresh NE
winds over the waters between 11N and 24N. Seas to 8 ft prevail 
in the vicinity of a tropical wave near 137W. Associated seas 
will continue to shift westward along with the tropical wave. 
Southern hemisphere SW swell is impacting the southern waters, 
with seas 8 to 9 ft covering much of the waters S of 10N and E 
of 115W. Large swell will continue propagating northward today, 
reaching near 14N, then start to subside on Sun.

$$
Mundell