000 AXPZ20 KNHC 122111 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1934 UTC Fri Jul 12 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Newly developed Tropical Depression Four-E centered near 15.1N 107.5W at 12/2100 UTC moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 30 nm W semicircle. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 12N to 18N between 106W and 111W. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave near 82W is moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted N of 06N between 80W and 86W. The axis of a tropical wave near 96W is moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 93W and 100W. A tropical depression has developed along a tropical wave near 107.5W. Please see special features above for more information. The axis of a tropical wave near 134W is moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 12N between 130W and 137W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 11N89W to 09N95W to 14.5N107W to 10N125W to 10N131W. The ITCZ extends from 10N137W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 112W and 120W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 15N between 121W and 125W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see above for more on newly developed TD Four-E. The system is expected to briefly intensify to tropical storm strength later tonight, with the tropical storm force winds remaining west of the offshore waters. Elsewhere large, long period S to SW swell propagating northward across the offshore waters south of Mexico will reach the coast of Baja California by tonight. A low pressure trough will strengthen over the Gulf of California this weekend, resulting in fresh SE to S winds over the northern and central Gulf Sat and Sat night with moderate winds over the southern portion. These winds will diminish Sun through Mon, then strengthen to fresh speeds again Tue and Tue night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough remains near 10N, and moderate to fresh SW flow will prevail south of the trough through the weekend. Elsewhere, fresh to strong offshore winds will pulse across and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo for the next several days. Wave heights will peak around 9 ft downstream of the Gulf each morning. Large, long period SW swell propagating across the region is supporting wave heights to 10 ft south of the Galapagos Islands. Seas will build to 8 ft or greater across most of the forecast waters into Sat and persist through the weekend. Seas will subside early next week as the swell decays. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between high pressure north of 30N and the monsoon trough/ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally fresh NE winds over the waters between 11N and 24N. Seas to 8 ft prevail in the vicinity of a tropical wave with axis near 134W. These seas will continue to shift westward along with the tropical wave. Southern hemispheric swell is spreading northward across the southern waters, with seas to 11 ft south of the Equator and 8-9 ft seas from 00N to 10N between 90W and 115W. This swell will continue propagating northward through Sat. $$ AL