000 AXPZ20 KNHC 121512 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1512 UTC Fri Jul 12 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A weak area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the southwest coast of Mexico has become better organized overnight, and continues to produce persistent showers and thunderstorms. Some additional development of this system is possible later today or tonight before environmental conditions become less conducive over the weekend while the system moves toward the west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph. This system now has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours. For more information, please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave near 84W is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is north of 06N within 90 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave near 92W is moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is north of 11N within 60 nm of the wave axis. A well-defined tropical wave near 106W is moving westward around 10 kt. A 1007 mb low is analyzed along the wave near 14.5N106W. Scattered strong convection is occurring within 120 nm west semicircle of the low. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N to 18N between 104W and 108W. Some development of this system is possible through tonight before environmental conditions become less favorable. Please see the Special Features section above for more information. A tropical wave near 133W is moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 12N within 90 nm of the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N76W to 10N86W to 09N96W to 14N107W to 11N130W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm south of the monsoon trough east of 86W, within 240 nm south of the monsoon trough between 94W and 102W, and within 180 nm north of the monsoon trough between 121W and 126W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 10N to 12N between 87W and 89W, and from 08N to 12N between 110W and 116W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Distant high pressure west of Baja California will maintain moderate to fresh NW winds over the offshore waters north of Cabo San Lazaro through tonight. Wind speeds will diminish on Sat as the high moves westward and the offshore pressure gradient relaxes. Large, long period S to SW swell will reach the coast of southern Mexico later today and the coast of Baja California by tonight. A low pressure trough will strengthen over the Gulf of California this weekend, resulting in fresh SE to S winds over the northern and central Gulf Sat and Sat night with moderate winds over the southern portion. These winds will diminish Sun through Mon, then strengthen to fresh speeds again Tue and Tue night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The latest satellite imagery and lightning data shows widely scattered moderate to strong convection within roughly 180 nm of the coast of Central America. The monsoon trough remains near 10N, and moderate to fresh SW flow will prevail south of the trough through the weekend. Elsewhere, fresh to strong offshore winds will pulse across and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo for the next several days. Wave heights will peak around 9 ft downstream of the Gulf each morning. Large, long period SW swell propagating across the region is supporting wave heights to 10 ft south of the Galapagos Islands. Seas will build to 8 ft or greater across most of the forecast waters tonight into Sat and persist through the weekend. Seas will subside early next week as the swell decays. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between high pressure north of 30N and the monsoon trough/ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally fresh NE winds over the waters between 11N and 24N. A tropical wave near 133W may produce seas to 8 ft and locally strong winds as it tracks westward through Sat. Elsewhere, recent altimeter data indicates southern hemispheric swell has spread northward across the southern waters, with seas to 11 ft south of the Equator and 8-9 ft seas from 00N to 10N between 90W and 115W. This swell will continue propagating northward through Sat. $$ Reinhart