000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120900
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Jul 12 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0830 UTC. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave along 83W north of 04N is moving westward at 10 
to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is N of 07N within 30 nm 
of the wave axis.

A tropical wave along 90W north of 04N is moving westward at 10 
to 15 kt through a moist and unstable environment. Scattered 
moderate convection is N of 11N within 30 nm of the wave axis.

A well-defined tropical wave along 105W from 06N to 18N is 
moving westward around 10 kt. A 1009 mb low is analyzed along 
the wave axis near 14N105W. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection is from 13N to 15N within 45 nm of the wave axis. 
Some development of this system is possible during the next two 
days before environmental conditions become less favorable.

A tropical wave along 132W from 04N to 16N is moving westward at 
about 15 kt. Minimal convection is associated with the wave.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 10N96W to 14N103W 
to 10N111W to 12N120W to 11N128W. The ITCZ extends from 10N132W 
to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection 
is observed from 06N to 10N between 106W and 115W.
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

High pressure west of Baja California will build southeastward 
through tonight, allowing fresh northwest winds to persist over 
the offshore waters north of Cabo San Lazaro. Moderate to fresh 
southeast to south winds are expected across the central and 
southern Gulf of California this weekend. Large long-period 
south to southwest swell will reach the coast of southern Mexico 
tonight, and continue into Mon.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough remains relatively weak near 10N, with gentle 
to moderate south to southwest winds south of trough and to 
gentle winds north of the axis. Little change is expected the 
next few days. Large long-period southwest swell will reach the 
coast of Central America today, and persist through Sun before 
it begins to slowly decay Sun and Mon.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

The gradient between an area of high pressure north of 30N and a 
tropical wave near 132W is supporting fresh south to southeast 
winds within 150 nm east of the wave axis, with wave heights of 
8 to 9 ft. The wave will move westward, and winds will diminish 
through Sunday. Winds are 20 kt or less, and wave heights are 8 
ft or less elsewhere. Southerly cross-equatorial swell will span 
much of the forecast are S of 14N and east of 115W today and Sat.

$$
Mundell