000 AXPZ20 KNHC 112205 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Jul 11 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave with axis along 81W north of 03N is moving westward at about 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 240 nm west of the axis from 03N to 07N. strong convection was noted from 05N to 08N between 79W and 81W. The shower and thunderstorm activity near this wave may increase during the overnight hours as the wave moves through a very moist and unstable environment as observed in latest TPW satellite animation and in water vapor imagery. A tropical wave with axis along 87W north of 03N is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. This wave is also moving through a very moist and unstable environment. A the present time, only isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted within 30 to 60 nm of the wave axis from 04N to 07N and from 10N to 11N. Ship with call sign "VRY09" recently reported east of winds of 20 kt at 11N89W. A rather well-defined tropical wave with axis along 103W from 04N to 17N is moving westward around 15 kt. A 1010 mb low is analyzed along the wave axis near 14N103W. The wave and low continue to produce disorganized convection of the scattered moderate to strong type intensity within 120 nm west and 60 nm east of the wave axis from 13N to 17N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 06N to 10N west of the wave axis to 110W, and also from 11N to 13N between 105W and 110W. Strong gusty winds may occur in and near this convective activity, especially with outflow boundaries that are racing away from this activity. This system is not expected to acquire significant development during the next few days while it tracks in a west-northwestward motion. A tropical wave with axis along 129W from 03N to 16N is moving westward at about 15 kt. This wave is passing to the southwest of a mid to upper-level anticyclone centered near 23N122.5W. A possible weak mid-level cyclonic circulation is identified near 07N129W. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 60 nm either side of the wave axis from 05N to 14N. This activity may possibly increase during the late night hours. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N79W to 09N93W to low pressure near 14N103W 1010 mb and to 11N110W to 11N119W to 10N127W. The ITCZ extends from 10N131W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 30 nm of the trough between 125W and 127W. Scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm south of the the trough between between 91W and 95W, and also within 180 nm south of the trough between 130W and 139W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure west of Baja California will build southeastward through Fri night, allowing for fresh northwest winds over the offshore waters north of Cabo San Lazaro. Moderate to fresh southeast to south winds are expected across the central and southern Gulf of California this weekend. Large long-period south to southwest swell will reach the coast of southern Mexico Fri night, and continue into Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough remains relatively weak near 10N with the associated gradient allowing for only gentle to moderate south to southwest winds south of trough and light to gentle winds north of the trough. Little change is expected the next few days. Large long-period southwest swell has begun to propagate through the far southern waters today east of 120W. Wave model guidance suggests that this swell will reach the coast of Central America on Fri, and persist through Sun before it begins to slowly decay Sun night into early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1023 mb is centered near 32N128W, with ridge extending southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and a tropical wave near 129W is resulting in fresh to strong east to southeast winds within 180 nm east of the wave from 06N to 10N, with wave heights in the range of 8 to 10 ft. The tropical wave will continue moving westward through the next 48 hours. These winds will diminish to mainly fresh speeds on Fri as the wave moves farther away from the ridge axis. However, lingering wave heights peaking to 8 ft are expected from 09N to 13N and west of 138W through the upcoming weekend. Outside of this area, winds are 20 kt or less, and wave heights are 8 ft or less under a stable atmospheric environment as noted by the stratocumulus clouds in the satellite imagery. Southerly swell that has already propagated across the equator is forecast to cover much of the forecast waters to south of 14N and east of 115W by Fri before it begins to decay. $$ Aguirre