000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111506 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1343 UTC Thu Jul 11 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 80W north of 01N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 05N to 08N between 79W and 81W. The disturbance is not likely to develop during the next few days. The axis of a tropical wave is near 86W north of 02N, moving westward at 10 kt. Isolated showers are from 05N to 10N between 82W and 86W. The disturbance is not likely to develop during the next few days. The axis of a tropical wave is near 103/104W from 04N to 15N, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. A 1011 mb low is located along the wave near 13N104W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 17N between 100W and 110W. Environmental conditions are not conducive for tropical cyclone development of this low during the next several days. The axis of a tropical wave is near along 126W from 03N to 13N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 122W and 130W. The disturbance is not likely to develop during the next few days. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 07.5N85W to low pres near 14N103W to 09N112W to 08N127W. The ITCZ extends from 08N127W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 95W and 100W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 09N to 13N between 115W and 122W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 05N to 10N between 130W and 138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure west of Baja California will build southeastward through Fri night, allowing for fresh NW winds over the offshore waters north of Cabo San Lazaro. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are expected across the central and southern Gulf of California this weekend. Large long period S-SW swell will reach the coast of southern Mexico Fri night, and continue into Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough remains relatively weak near 10N with only gentle to moderate S to SW winds south of trough and light to gentle winds north of the trough. Little change is expected the next few days. Large long period SW swell will cross the equator later today, reaching the coast of Central America on Fri, and persist through the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure is centered near 30N130W, with ridge extending southeast to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and a tropical wave near 126W is helping for fresh to strong winds E of the tropical wave axis. Seas over this area are in the 8-10 ft range. The tropical wave will continue moving westward. Though winds will diminish to 20 kt or less, seas of 8 ft or greater will continue to shift westward with the tropical wave. Outside of this area, winds are 20 kt or less, and seas are 8 ft or less. Southerly swell will cross the equator today, with seas 8 ft or greater propagating northward, covering much of the forecast waters S of 10N and E of 115W by Fri before beginning to subside. $$ AL