000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110900
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Jul 11 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0830 UTC. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave along 85W is moving westward at 10 kt. Isolated 
showers are from 07N to 09.5N between 82.5W and 85W. The 
disturbance is not likely to develop during the next few days. 

A well-defined tropical wave is along 102W from 04N to 15N, and 
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. A 1011 mb low is located along 
the wave near 13N102W. Scattered moderate to strong convection 
is present N of 13N within 120 nm of wave axis. Environmental 
conditions are not conducive for tropical cyclone development 
during the next several days.

A tropical wave along 125W from 03N to 13N is moving westward at 
15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present 
from 05N to 11N between 120W and 131W. The disturbance is not 
likely to develop during the next few days.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 08N91W to 13N102W 
to 09N110W. The ITCZ begins at 09N111W to 09N124W, breaks for a 
tropical wave, and continues from 08N126W to 07N131W to beyond 
09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 
150 nm of the ITCZ between 115W and 132W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

High pressure west of Baja California will build southeastward 
through Fri night, allowing for fresh NW winds over the offshore 
waters north of Cabo San Lazaro. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds 
are expected across the central and southern Gulf of California 
this weekend. Large long period S-SW swell will reach the coast 
of southern Mexico Fri night, and continue into Mon.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough remains relatively weak near 10N with only 
gentle to moderate S to SW winds south of trough and light to 
gentle winds north of the trough. Little change is expected the 
next few days. Large long period SW swell will cross the equator 
later today, reach the coasts of Central America on Fri, and 
persist through the weekend. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

The pressure gradient across the forecast area remains rather 
weak. High pressure near 30N128W with ridging extending to near 
the Revillagigedo Islands will shift southeast. Tropical waves 
moving westward west of 105W will help increase winds across the 
trade wind belt. Wave heights may peak around 8 ft Thu through 
Fri west of 130W from the combination of NE wind waves and long 
period S to SW swell propagating through these waters. 

$$
Mundell