000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110224 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 137 UTC Thu Jul 11 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A new tropical wave over Central America with an axis near 84W is emerging over the Eastern North Pacific. The system is identifiable in the 700 mb diagnostics, but harder to locate in the surface winds. No significant deep convection is present currently in association with this wave. The system is unlikely to develop during the next several days. A tropical wave with axis near 101W from 03N to 15N is moving westward around 10 to 15 kt. A weak 1011 mb low is located along the wave near 13N101W. The wave is identifiable both from 700 mb diagnostic as well as from broad cyclonic turning of the winds at the surface seen in an earlier scatterometer pass. Scattered moderate convection is present north of 13N within 120 nm of the wave axis. Per latest Tropical Weather Outlook, environmental conditions are not forecast to be particularly conducive for development during the next several days while it moves westward to west-northwestward well offshore of the southern coast of Mexico. A tropical wave with axis near 123W from 03N to 13N is moving westward at about 10 kt. The wave is identifiable both from 700 mb diagnostic as well as from broad cyclonic turning of the winds at the surface seen in the earlier scatterometer pass. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 07N to 10N between 122W and 125W. The system is unlikely to develop during the next several days. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to a 1011 mb low pressure near 13N101W and continues to 09N110W. The ITCZ begins at 09N110W to 08N122W, breaks for a tropical wave, continues at 08N125W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 117W and 122W and again within 180 nm south of the axis from 125W to 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure west of Baja California will build southeastward through Fri night allowing for mainly fresh NW winds over the offshore waters north of Cabo San Lazaro. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are expected across the central and southern Gulf of California this upcoming weekend. Moderate to rough long period S to SW swell will begin arriving along the southern Mexico zones Fri afternoon and continue through Mon. No tropical cyclone activity is expected in the offshore zones for the next several days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough remains relatively weak near 10N with only gentle to moderate S to SW winds south of trough and light to gentle winds north of the trough. A tropical wave is located along 100W with scattered showers and thunderstorms, but wind only fresh or weaker. Little change is expected for the next several days. Moderate to rough long period S to SW swell will begin arriving along the equatorial zones tomorrow afternoon and the Central American zones Fri afternoon and continue through Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient across the forecast area remains rather weak. A 1021 mb high at 28N134W with ridging extending west- southwest to east-northeast will shift slightly southeast. A tropical wave continues on a westward track, helping to increase winds across the trade wind belt. Wave heights may peak to around 7 ft Thu through Fri west of 130W from the combination of northeast wind waves and increased long period southwest swell propagating through these waters. $$ Landsea