730 AXPZ20 KNHC 102204 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2145 UTC Wed Jul 10 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave with axis near 100W from 03N to 15N is moving westward around 10 to 15 kt. A weak 1012 mb low is located along the wave near 12N100W. The wave is identifiable both from 700 mb diagnostic as well as from broad cyclonic turning of the winds at the surface seen in this afternoon's scatterometer pass. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present north of 12N within 180 nm of the wave axis. Per latest Tropical Weather Outlook, environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for development during the next several days while it moves westward to west-northwestward well offshore of the southern coast of Mexico. A tropical wave with axis near 122W from 03N to 13N is moving westward at about 10 kt. The wave is identifiable both from 700 mb diagnostic as well as from broad cyclonic turning of the winds at the surface seen in this afternoon's scatterometer pass. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 06N to 10N between 120W and 134W. The system is unlikely to develop during the next several days. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10n84w to a 1012 mb low pressure near 12N100W and continues to 08N110W. The ITCZ begins at 08N110W to 08N120W, breaks for a tropical wave, continues at 08N124W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 115W and 120W and again within 180 nm south of the axis from 124W to 132W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure west of Baja California will build southeastward through Fri night allowing for mainly fresh NW winds over the offshore waters north of Cabo San Lazaro. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are expected across the central and southern Gulf of California this upcoming weekend. Moderate to rough long period S to SW swell will begin arriving along the southern Mexico zones Fri afternoon and continue through Mon. No tropical cyclones are expected in the offshore zones for the next several days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough remains relatively weak near 10N with only gentle to moderate S to SW winds south of trough and light to gentle winds north of the trough. A tropical wave is located along 100W with scattered showers and thunderstorms, but little wind. Little change is expected for the next several days. Moderate to rough long period S to SW swell will begin arriving along the equatorial zones Thu afternoon and the Central American zones Fri afternoon and continue through Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient across the forecast area remains rather weak. A broad ridge north of the area will shift slightly southeast while a tropical wave continues on a westward track, helping to increase winds across the trade wind belt. Wave heights may peak to around 7 ft Thu through Fri west of 130W from the combination of northeast wind waves and increased long period southwest swell propagating through these waters. $$ Landsea