000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Jul 10 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave with axis along 99W from 03N to 15N is moving westward around 15 kt. A 1012 mb low is located along the wave near 11N99W. The wave is embedded within a very moist atmospheric environment per latest TPW imagery and GOES-16 satellite imagery. This wave and associated low pressure is part of a large area of disorganized scattered moderate to strong type convection that covers the area from 13N to 16N between 93W and 98W. In addition, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 30 nm of a line from 14N99W to 12.5N100W, while scattered moderate convection is seen within 120 nm either side of the wave and low from 10N to 12N and also within 60 nm of 07N98W. Per latest NHC Topical Weather Outlook, development of this system should be slow to occur during the next few days as it tracks west-northwestward. A tropical wave with axis along 121W from 03N to 14N is moving westward at 10-15 kt. The surrounding environment of this has become more moist during the past 24 hours. The wave is passing to the south of a mid/upper level anticyclone located at 21N124W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 60 nm either side of the wave from 08N to 10N. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen elsewhere from 09N to 12N between 120W and 125W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia to 10N85W to 09N94W to low pressure near 11N99W 1012 mb and to 09N107W. The ITCZ extends from 09N107W to 08N120W. It resumes at 07N123W to 06N135W and to beyond the area at 08N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 90 nm south of the ITCZ between 127W and 130W, and within 60 nm north of the of the ITCZ between 128W and 130W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 04N to 09N between 78W and 80W OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure west of Baja California will build southeastward through Fri night allowing for mainly fresh northwest winds over the offshore waters north of Cabo San Lazaro. Moderate to fresh southeast to south winds are expected across the central and southern Gulf of California this upcoming weekend. Gulf of California: Light to gentle variable winds will continue over the entire gulf through Fri afternoon. Lower pressure along Baja California Peninsula will deepen afterwards, with moderate to fresh southeast winds expected in the central and southern gulf, and fresh to possibly locally strong southeast winds over the central and northern Gulf through early on Sun morning. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Light and variable winds are expected near the coast through the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Mainly fresh northeast winds will pulse late tonight and Thu night, then pulse to strong late at night on Fri and Sat, with wave heights of about 6-7 ft and possibly to 8 ft Sat night. A tropical wave along 80W and north 04N will move across Central America and into the eastern Pacific tonight through Sat. Scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected over much of the offshore waters the next few days. Otherwise, long-period southwest swell will propagate through the southern offshore waters beginning Thu afternoon and through the rest of the offshore waters Fri afternoon through Sun night while subsiding slightly. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The weakening remnant post-tropical low of Cosme is near 23N122W with a pressure of 1014 mb. It is forecast to open to a trough by early this evening. The pressure gradient across the forecast area remains rather weak. A broad ridge north of the area will shift slightly southeast while a tropical wave continues on a westward track, helping to increase winds across the trade wind belt. Wave heights may peak to around 7 ft Thu through Fri west of 130W from the combination of northeast wind waves and increased long period southwest swell propagating through these waters. $$ Aguirre