182 AXPZ20 KNHC 100235 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Jul 10 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0215 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave with axis along 96W from 04N to 15N is moving westward at 10-15 kt. A 1011 mb low is located along the wave near 09N96W. The wave is embedded within a very moist atmospheric environment as depicted by the total and low-level precipitable water microwave satellite imagery. Middle to upper level diffluent flow support scattered moderate convection from 06N to 15N between 93W and 104W. The 1011 mb low accompanying this wave is forecast by the NWP models to acquire some gradual development as it tracks in a general west-northwest motion Thu through late Fri before it weakens to a trough afterwards. A tropical wave with axis along 118W from 03N to 12N is moving westward around 10 kt. This wave is moving through an environment of decreasing atmospheric moisture. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are from 06N to 10N between 111W and 120W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 07N84W to 09N94W to 08N105W. The ITCZ extends from 08N105W to 07N116W, resumes at 07N120W to 09N129W, then resumes near 09N134W and continues beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 03N to 08N E of 91W. Isolated showers are from 06N to 11N between 111W and 122W. Numerous moderate convection is from 07N to 12N W of 129W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The remnants of former tropical cyclone Cosme continue to allow for a generally relaxed pressure gradient west of the Baja California Peninsula. This is allowing for the continuation of light to moderate northwest to north winds over these waters. The remnants of Cosme will open into an open wave on Wed and dissipate afterwards, allowing for the ridge to rebuild eastward. This will result in a slightly stronger pressure gradient that will support moderate to fresh northerly flow off Baja through Fri night. Light to gentle winds will dominate the offshore waters the remainder weekend. Gulf of California: Light to gentle variable winds will dominate the entire gulf through Fri evening. Lower pressure along Baja California Peninsula will deepen afterwards, thus resulting in moderate to fresh southeast winds along the central and southern portions of the gulf through Sun morning. Strong winds will pulse N of 29N Sat into Sun morning. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Mainly moderate easterlies will dominate the Tehuantepec offshore waters through Wed night as a tropical wave moves through the area. Generally light and variable winds will continue afterwards through the remainder of the week and weekend with waveheights in the range of 4-6 ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are moving across the region associated with a tropical wave. This activity will continue to spread westward across these waters through Wed. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night Wed and then again Fri and Sat night with seas building to 9 ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms across the offshore waters will briefly cease Wed evening, however a tropical wave approaching from the Caribbean will bring back showers to the region Thu. Long-period south to southwest swell will begin to reach the waters south of the Galapagos Islands and west of Ecuador on Thu. The swell will continue to propagate NNE to the Colombia and Central America offshore waters on Fri and Sat, with seas building to 10 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The weakening post-tropical remnant low of Cosme is centered near 22N121W with a pressure of 1013 mb. There is no convection associated with the low at this time, however latest scatterometer data show 15-20 kt winds within 210 nm of the low center in the northwest quadrant. Current seas associated with this low are up to 7 ft. The low will continue on a west motion through Wed as it gradually opens up to a trough. Waveheights around the low will continue to subside through Wed night. The pressure gradient across the high seas domain remains weak. A persistent broad ridge centered just north of the area will shift slightly southeastward through the end of the week while a tropical wave continues on a westward track west of 115W. The resultant pressure gradient is expected to increase the northeast to east trades to mainly the moderate to fresh range across the trade wind belt. Waveheights may peak to 8 ft Thu through Fri west of about 120W from the combination of the increasing trades and prevailing predominate southwest long- period swell propagating through these waters. $$ Ramos