000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090920 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Jul 9 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave along 93W north of 04N is moving westward at 15- 20 kt. Scattered strong convection is occurring from 05N to 09N between 90W and 94W. A 1012 mb surface low is analyzed along the wave axis near 09N93W. This low will move WNW over the next few days and maintain active convection. After the wave crosses 105W around Thu night, atmospheric conditions are not expected to be favorable for better organization, and the low will likely open up into a trough. A tropical wave along 115W from 01N to 12N is moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted well to the west of the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N78W to low pressure near 09N93W 1012 mb to 08N95W to 07N110W to 09N118W. The ITCZ extends from 13N125W to 09N136W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 04N to 10N between 79W and 112W, and from 00N to 10N west of 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad ridge persists west of Baja California. Scatterometer data shows light to gentle NW to N winds north of Cabo San Lazaro, while moderate NW winds prevail near Cabo San Lucas. Little change in the overall synoptic pattern is expected through Wed. The ridge will strengthen slightly across the area Thu through Fri, and enhance NW winds W of the Baja peninsula. Gulf of California: Fresh SW gap are expected early this morning with seas building to 4-5 ft. Over the southern portions, gentle to moderate west to northwest winds will shift to the southeast Thu and Fri as a surface trough deepens near Baja California. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Variable gentle winds will prevail through the rest of the week with seas less than 8 ft. Active convection associated with a tropical wave along 93W will spread into the offshore area tonight through Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Active weather will continue across the offshore waters west of 86W today, and shift westward with the tropical wave. More long period south to southwest swell currently will begin reach the equator on Thu, and continue to propagate into Central American waters Fri and Sat, with seas building to 10 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The post-tropical remnant low of Cosme is devoid of significant convection. Scatterometer data shows 15-20 kt winds N-NW of the low center. The remnant low will move NW and gradually weaken to an open trough. Altimeter data shows seas to 8 ft E of the low center. Seas will continue to subside today. The pressure gradient across the high seas domain remains weak. A persistent broad ridge centered just north of the area will sink slightly SE and produce moderate winds across the trade wind belt Wed through Thu. $$ Mundell