000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080910 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0910 UTC Mon Jul 8 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Cosme is centered near 19.8N 120.1W at 08/0900 UTC moving NW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Cosme is expected to weaken to a remnant low later today as it continues moving northwest with a decrease in forward speed over the next couple days. The latest satellite imagery indicates weak convection between 90 nm and 180 nm north of the center of Cosme. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from Nicaragua and western Costa Rica southward into the eastern Pacific along 85W. Numerous strong convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 82W and 89W. A tropical wave is near 111W, moving W around 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave. A tropical wave is near 132W, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 133W and 136W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N76W to 10N85W to 08N110W to 08N119W. The ITCZ extends from 08N119W to 07N130W, then resumes from 09N134W to beyond 09N140W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 03N to 07N east of 79W, and within 180 nm north of the monsoon trough between 87W and 101W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 180 nm south of the monsoon trough between 91W and 96W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A high pressure ridge persists across the Baja California offshore waters. Recent scatterometer data showed fresh W winds south of Cabo San Lucas and moderate NW winds near Punta Eugenia. Little change in the overall pattern is expected through mid week as daytime heating will support locally fresh winds near the coast during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Elsewhere, generally gentle to moderate NW winds will continue off the coast of Baja California. Swell from distant Tropical Depression Cosme is producing 8 ft seas over the outer waters SW of Cabo San Lazaro with 5-7 ft seas near the entrance to the Gulf of California. These seas will subside today as Cosme continues moving away from the region. Gulf of California: Fresh to strong SW gap winds are likely ongoing over the northern Gulf of California with seas in the 4-6 ft range. These gap winds will diminish today, then reach fresh speeds again late Mon night. Over the southern portions, gentle to moderate W to NW winds will become light and variable by mid week, then shift to SE Thu and Fri as a low pressure trough strengthens near Baja California. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to strong northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish later this morning. Gentle winds will prevail through the rest of the week with seas less than 8 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A north-south pressure gradient across Central America will support pulsing fresh gap winds between the Gulf of Fonseca and the Gulf of Papagayo through the middle of this week. Wave heights downstream of the gulfs will reach 5-7 ft each day. Long period S to SW swell currently propagating through the waters will diminish by Tue. Another round of southerly swell will move into the southern waters Thu with wave heights building to 10 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, and 8 ft seas developing over the Central American offshore waters. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the special features section for more information on Tropical Depression Cosme. An area of 8 ft seas persists over the waters from roughly 10N to 18N west of 135W, likely in mixed SE swell and local wind waves generated by moderate to fresh NE trades. These seas will subside through tonight as the swell decays and trade winds weaken slightly. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient across much of the high seas domain remains weak. Earlier 01Z altimeter data showed an area of 8-9 ft seas in SW swell over the waters from 03N to 12N along 105W. Wave heights will subside below 8 ft by tonight as this swell decays. $$ Reinhart