000 AXPZ20 KNHC 072207 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Jul 07 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Cosme is centered near 18.6N 119.0W at 2100 UTC moving NW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Latest satellite imagery continues to show deep convection remaining well removed from the center of Cosme, with just an isolated cluster of moderate convection within 120 nm across the NW quadrant. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection extends SW to NE from 14N to 21N between 110W and 117W, and is embedded in the moist SW low level flow associated with the monsoon trough. Cosme remains sheared and is separating from the tropical moisture about the monsoon trough. Cosme will gradually lose tropical characteristics over the next 24 hours, and become a post tropical low, then continue to move WNW and then W over the next several days as it gradually dissipates over the cooler waters to the west of 120W. Moderate SW to S swell associated with the broad circulation of Cosme will continue to move into the offshore waters of Baja California through late Mon. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The southern portion of the axis of a tropical wave currently over the western Caribbean Sea along 83W reaches southward to near 04N. It is aiding in the widespread coverage of ongoing deep convection west of Colombia. extending N of 03N and into the SW Caribbean, between 78W and 84W. A tropical wave is along 105W from 02N to 13N, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 04N to 11N between 101W and 110W. A tropical wave along 127W from 03N to 13N, moving westward around 10 kt. Convection associated with this wave is occurring about the monsoon trough segment to the SW of Cosme. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from a 1010 mb low over Colombia near 10N73W to 10N84W to 07.5N102W TO 06N109W TO 10N112W, where it breaks, then resumes from 13N119W to 10N125W. The ITCZ extends from 11N120W TO 10N128W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 270 nm N and 210 NM S of the monsoon trough between 87W and 113W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm NW of the trough between 119W and 127W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extends from a 1026 mb high pressure center located north of the area near 34N137W southeastward across the Baja California offshore waters to 21N112W. Afternoon scatterometer data indicates moderate NW winds across the waters south of Punta Eugenia, and moderate west to northwest south of Cabo San Lucas. These winds will change little through Tue, with afternoon heating leading to a modest increase in late afternoon wind speeds. Elsewhere, generally gentle to moderate northwest winds will continue off the coast of Baja California. Although Tropical Storm Cosme continues moving away from the Mexican offshore waters, associated southerly swell will continue to move northward through the waters through early Mon. This will result in waveheights of 7-8 ft to the west of Cabo Corrientes near the entrance to the Gulf of California through late tonight as they subside slightly, then subside to below 7 ft by late on Mon night. Gulf of California: South to southwest gentle to moderate winds over the northern Gulf will increase to fresh to strong winds by late tonight and diminish to mainly moderate winds on Mon morning. These winds will diminish further, to gentle speeds, on Mon afternoon then increase slightly to moderate speeds Mon night before diminishing again to gentle speeds Tue afternoon. Over the southern portions, mainly gentle west to northwest gentle to moderate winds will become light and variable 10 kt or less tonight and change little through Tue. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Afternoon scatterometer data suggests fresh to strong northerly gap winds continuing across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds will continue tonight then diminish slowly on Mon, then are expected to shift to southerly on Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A north-south pressure gradient across Central America will support pulsing fresh gap winds between the Gulf of Fonseca and the Gulf of Papagayo through the middle of the upcoming week. Downstream waveheights will reach the range of 6-7 ft each day. Otherwise, south to southwest winds are expected south of the monsoon trough during the next few days. Long-period south to southwest swell currently propagating through these waters will diminish by Tue. Looking ahead, another round of southerly swell will move into the southern waters Thu with waveheights building to 8-10 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the special features section for more information on Tropical Storm Cosme. Swell associated with the remnant low of former tropical cyclone Barbara well to the west of the area, combined with already present background southerly swell, is bringing waveheights in the range of 8-10 ft over the waters west of a line from 11N140W TO 10.5N133W TO 20N135W TO 25N140W. These waveheights will subside through early Mon evening as the remnants of Barbara continue moving west of the forecast area. Elsewhere, the gradient associated with high pressure over the waters north of 20N is resulting in gentle to moderate northeast winds based on afternoon scatterometer data. Long-period south to southwest swell propagating through the waters east of 125W will slowly diminish through Tue. $$ Stripling