000 AXPZ20 KNHC 071551 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Jul 07 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Cosme is centered near 17.7N 118.4W at 07/1500 UTC moving NW at 08kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Latest satellite imagery shows that the deep convection has become well removed from the center of Cosme. This convection is noted as the scattered moderate to isolated strong type intensity from 17N to 19N between 114W and 116W. Decreasing scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of 18.5N118W and 19N117W. Similar convection is well to the southeast and south of Cosme within 30 nm either side of a line from 15N115W to 13N119W. The latest NHC advisory forecasts Cosme to track in a general west- northwest to northwest motion during the next couple of days with a gradual decrease in forward speed. Cosme is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by early this evening, and to a remnant low by early on Tue. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The southern portion of the axis of a tropical wave currently over the western Caribbean Sea along 80W reaches southward to near 04N. It is aiding the intensity and coverage of ongoing deep convection west of Colombia as described below under the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section. A tropical wave has its axis along 105W from 02N to 15N, moving westward around 16 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 180 nm east of the wave from 08N to 11N and within 60 nm west of the wave from 08N to 10N. This wave is moving through a moist and unstable environment, and is detected very well by model diagnostics guidance. A tropical wave has its axis along 126W from 03N to 15, moving westward around 15 kt. The TPW satellite animation depicts a maximum in moisture behind the wave from 08N to 14N between 119W and 126W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm east of the wave from 10N to 11N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from a 1010 mb low over Colombia near 10N75W to 10N84W to 09N95W to 09N105W and to 13N113W. It resumes at 13N119W to 10N125W. Latest scatterometer data indicates that the ITCZ begins at 10N126W and continues to beyond the area at 08N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N to 07N between 77W and 83W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the monsoon trough between 102W and 108W and within 60 nm north of the trough between 106W and 110W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extends from a 1028 mb high pressure center located north of the area near 35N138W southeastward across the Baja California offshore waters to the Revillagigedo Islands. Overnight scatterometer data indicated moderate to locally fresh west to northwest south of Cabo San Lucas. These winds will diminish to mainly fresh winds by early this afternoon and continue to pulse south of Los Cabos through at least Tue. elsewhere, generally gentle to moderate northwest winds will continue off the coast of Baja California. Although Tropical Storm Cosme continues moving away from the Mexican offshore waters, associated southerly swell will move northward across the waters through early Mon. This will result in waveheights of 8-9 ft to the west of Cabo Corrientes near the entrance to the Gulf of California through late tonight as they subside slightly, then subside to below 8 ft by late on Mon night. Gulf of California: South to southwest gentle to moderate winds over the northern Gulf will increase to fresh to strong winds by late tonight and diminish to mainly moderate winds on Mon morning. These winds will diminish further, to gentle speeds, on Mon afternoon then increase slightly to moderate speeds Mon night before diminishing again to gentle speeds Tue afternoon. Over the southern portions, mainly gentle west to northwest gentle to moderate winds will become light and variable 10 kt or less tonight and change little through Tue. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Overnight scatterometer data showed fresh to strong northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds will diminish to fresh speeds this afternoon, to moderate speeds tonight into Mon and to mainly gentle speeds Mon afternoon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A north-south pressure gradient across Central America will support pulsing fresh gap winds between the Gulf of Fonseca and the Gulf of Papagayo through the middle of the upcoming week. Downstream waveheights will reach the range of 6-7 ft each day. Otherwise, south to southwest winds are expected south of the monsoon trough during the next few days. Long-period south to southwest swell currently propagating through these waters will diminish by Tue. Looking ahead, another round of southerly swell will move into the southern waters Thu with waveheights building to 8-10 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the special features section for more information on Tropical Storm Cosme. Swell associated with the remnant low of former tropical cyclone Barbara well to the west of the area, combined with already present background southerly swell, is bringing waveheights in the range of 8-10 ft over the waters west of a line from 10N139W to 14N131W to 22N128W and to 25N140W. These waveheights will subside through early Mon evening as the remnants of Barbara continue moving west of the forecast area. Elsewhere, the gradient associated with high pressure over the waters north of 20N is resulting in gentle to moderate northeast winds based on overnight scatterometer data. Long-period south to southwest swell propagating through the waters east of 125W will diminish through Tue. $$ Aguirre