000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070915 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0915 UTC Sun Jul 7 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Cosme is centered near 16.9N 118.0W at 07/0900 UTC moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. A west-northwest to northwest motion is expected the next couple of days with a gradual decrease in forward speed. Cosme is expected to weaken to a tropical depression later today, and a remnant low by Monday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 104W, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 11N between 103W and 112W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 126W, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 120W and 126W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N77W to 10N85.5W to 09N112W, then resumes from 12N120W to 10N125W. The ITCZ extends from 10N127W to 08N140W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted within 180 nm south of the monsoon trough east of 85W, and from 02N to 05N east of 81W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extends from 1027 mb high pressure centered near 34N137W southeastward across the Baja California offshore waters to the Revillagigedo Islands. Recent scatterometer data shows moderate to locally fresh W winds south of Cabo San Lucas. Fresh winds will continue pulsing south of Los Cabos for the next few days. Elsewhere, generally gentle to moderate NW winds will prevail off the coast of Baja California. Although Tropical Storm Cosme continues moving away from the Mexican offshore waters, associated southerly swell will move northward across the waters through early Mon. This will result in 8-9 ft seas west of Cabo Corrientes near the entrance to the Gulf of California later today. Gulf of California: S to SW winds will prevail across the northern Gulf into early next week, with SW gap winds reaching fresh to locally strong speeds tonight and Mon night. Across the southern portions, mainly gentle W to NW winds will persist through mid week. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Scatterometer data from 04Z shows fresh to strong northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Offshore gap winds are expected to pulse to fresh speeds again Sun night, then diminish through mid week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A north-south pressure gradient across Central America will support pulsing fresh gap winds between the Gulf of Fonseca and the Gulf of Papagayo through mid week. Downstream seas will reach 6-7 ft each day. Otherwise, moderate S to SW winds are expected south of the monsoon trough during the next few days. Long period S to SW swell currently impacting the waters will diminish by Tue. Looking ahead, another round of southerly swell will move into the southern waters Thu with seas building to 8-10 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the special features section for more information on Tropical Storm Cosme. Swell associated with Post-Tropical Cyclone Barbara, combined with background southerly swell, is producing 8-12 ft seas over the waters north of 15N and west of 134W based on 03Z altimeter data. Seas in this region will subside through Sun night as the remnants of Barbara continue moving west of the forecast area. Elsewhere, the influence of high pressure over the waters north of 20N is producing gentle to moderate NE winds based on the latest scatterometer data. Long period S to SW swell impacting the waters east of 125W will diminish early this week. $$ Reinhart