000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070232 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Jul 7 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Post-Tropical Cyclone Barbara is centered just west of the discussion area near 18.5N 141.5W at 0000 UTC, moving WSW at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Associated gale force winds have shifted west of 140W and out of the area. Scattered showers are within 300 nm north of the center. A large wave field accompanies this system as strong SW southern hemispheric swell is moving through the area. Seas of 8 ft and larger cover the area generally south of 29N and west of 135W. The post-tropical cyclone will move just south of westward at about the same rate of speed until dissipation in a couple of days. See latest NHC forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for additional details. Tropical Storm Cosme is centered near 16.7N 117.1W at 0300 UTC, moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained winds remain 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. The tropical storm is expected to turn northwest tonight through Sunday and weaken slightly, then move over cooler waters Sunday night through Mon, when it is expected to become post-tropical. Scattered moderate to strong showers and thunderstorms are located within 180 nm east of the center. See latest NHC forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for additional details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 102W, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is present from 05N to 10N between 99W and 110W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 124W, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is present from 08.5N to 13N between 120W and 126W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough emerges off of Costa Rica near 10N85.5W to 12N112W, where it is broken by Tropical Storm Cosme. The monsoon trough begins again at 12N118W TO 12N130W. The ITCZ extends from 12N130W to 09N140W. In addition to convection associated with tropical waves as mentioned above, scattered moderate to strong convection is located within 180 nm S of the monsoon trough between 88W and 95W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extends from a 1027 mb high several hundred nm west of California to along 110W between Cabo San Lucas and the Revillagigedo Islands. Gentle to moderate generally NW winds will prevail across the Baja offshore waters for the next several days. Newly-formed Tropical Storm Cosme will move away from Mexico with little wind impacts across the waters, though moderate southerly swell will move northward through the waters through early Mon, and also reach the entrance to the Gulf of California including Cabo Corrientes tonight. Across the Gulf of California, S to SW winds will prevail across northern portions, with weak low pressure inducing strong SW winds Sun night through Mon morning. Across southern portions, expect W to NW winds to prevail through Mon with periods of fresh W gap winds near the Baja coast. Southerly swell from Cosme will reach the entrance to the Gulf this evening. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A north-south pressure gradient across Central America is causing a fresh gap wind event between the Gulf of Papagayo and the Gulf of Fonseca, with downstream seas 6 to 7 ft. Winds here will increase slightly overnight. Otherwise, moderate to fresh offshore winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, while gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected south of the trough during the next few days. Moderate to rough long period S to SW swell currently impacting all zones will diminish beginning on Tue. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the special features section for more information on Post-Tropical Cyclone Barbara and Tropical Storm Cosme. For the remainder of the area, the combined effect of Barbara and Cosme have caused a weak pressure gradient and generally gentle to moderate winds prevail. Such conditions will continue for the next few days. East of 125W and south of 20N moderate to rough long period S to SW swell currently impacting the area will diminish beginning on Tue. $$ Stripling