000 AXPZ20 KNHC 062200 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Jul 6 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Post-Tropical Cyclone Barbara is centered near 18.5N 140W at 1800 UTC, moving WSW at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained winds have weakened to 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Gale force winds extend within 150 nm across the NE quadrant, where seas are 12 to 21 ft. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 300 nm north of the center. A large wave field accompanies this system as strong SW southern hemispheric swell is moving through the area. Seas of 8 ft and larger cover the area generally south of 29N and west of 134W. The post-tropical cyclone will moving just south of westward at about the same rate of speed until dissipation in a couple of days. See latest NHC forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for additional details. Tropical Storm Cosme is centered near 16.2N 116.3W at 2100 UTC, moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. The tropical storm is expected to continue with the same motion today, followed by a turn to the northwest on Sunday. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours, with some weakening anticipated by late Sunday into Monday. Scattered moderate to strong showers and thunderstorms are located within 270 nm east of the center. See latest NHC forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for additional details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 100W, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is present from 05N to 16N between 98W and 105W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 123W, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 04.5N to 12N between 120W and 127W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough emerges off of Costa Rica near 10N85.5W to 07N106W, where it is broken by Tropical Storm Cosme. The monsoon trough begins again at 13N118W TO 10N133W. The ITCZ extends from 10N133W to 08N140W. In addition to convection associated with tropical waves as mentioned above, scattered moderate to strong convection is located within 120 nm S of the monsoon trough between 87W and 94W, and between 105W and 111W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extends from a 1028 mb high several hundred nm west of California to along 110W between Cabo San Lucas and the Revillagigedo Islands. Gentle to moderate generally NW winds will prevail across the Baja offshore waters for the next several days. Newly-formed Tropical Storm Cosme will move away from Mexico with little wind impacts across the waters, though moderate southerly swell will move northward through the waters through early Mon, and also reach the entrance to the Gulf of California including Cabo Corrientes. Across the Gulf of California, S to SW winds will prevail across northern portions, with weak low pressure inducing strong SW winds Sun night through Mon morning. Across southern portions, expect W to NW winds to prevail through Mon with periods of fresh W gap winds near the Baja coast. Southerly swell from Cosme will reach the entrance to the Gulf this evening. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A north-south pressure gradient across Central America is causing a fresh gap wind event between the Gulf of Papagayo and the Gulf of Fonseca this afternoon, with downstream seas 6 to 7 ft. Otherwise, moderate to fresh offshore winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, while gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected south of the trough during the next few days. Moderate to rough long period S to SW swell currently impacting all zones will diminish beginning on Tue. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the special features section for more information on Post-Tropical Cyclone Barbara and Tropical Storm Cosme. For the remainder of the area, the combined effect of Barbara and Cosme have caused a weak pressure gradient and generally gentle to moderate winds prevail. Such conditions will continue for the next few days. East of 125W and south of 20N moderate to rough long period S to SW swell currently impacting the area will diminish beginning on Tue. $$ Stripling